NEW YORK, Feb 22, 2026, 12:02 EST — Market closed.
- Deere ended Friday at $662.49, little changed on the day, after a sharp post-earnings jump.
- The company lifted its 2026 profit forecast on strength in construction and smaller-farm equipment.
- Tariffs and farm income trends remain the swing factors as markets reopen on Monday.
Deere & Co (DE) heads into the Monday reopen of Wall Street at a record close, after investors chased the farm and construction equipment maker on fresh guidance and a rare burst of confidence about the cycle. The stock finished Friday at $662.49, up 0.07%. (Deere)
That matters now because Deere is a bellwether for big-ticket spending across farms, dealers and construction fleets. When it moves, peers and suppliers tend to get dragged with it, for better or worse.
The other reason is timing. Trade policy is back in the tape, rates still bite, and many investors have been waiting for a clear sign the machinery slump is easing rather than just pausing.
The stock’s surge started a day earlier. Deere’s shares climbed from $593.27 on Wednesday to $662.00 on Thursday — about an 11.6% jump — before tacking on another 49 cents on Friday, according to the company’s historical price data. (Deere)
Deere said first-quarter net income fell to $656 million, or $2.42 a share (profit per share), while worldwide net sales and revenues rose 13% to $9.61 billion. It raised its fiscal 2026 net income forecast to $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion; CEO John May said “2026 represents the bottom of the current cycle.” (Deere)
Analysts moved quickly to frame what comes next. Kristen Owen at Oppenheimer flagged “lean inventories” and argued that normalization could leave room for upside later in the year, even as Deere pegs a pre-tax tariff hit of about $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026. (Reuters)
Tariffs are the messy part. Stocks broadly rose on Friday after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down former President Donald Trump’s global tariffs under an emergency law, but Trump later announced a new 10% tariff for 150 days under a different trade provision. For manufacturers that import parts and metals, it keeps costs and pricing in play. (Reuters)
Farm cash flow is the other pressure point. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts 2026 net farm income — a broad measure of profits — at $153.4 billion, down 0.7% from 2025. That kind of backdrop can make farmers stretch replacement cycles, even when dealers push incentives. (Usda)
But this rally can still snap back. If tariff costs widen again, or if crop economics stay tight into spring buying season, traders may decide the stock ran ahead of the demand story.
There is also the simple valuation question. Deere’s jump put it back in “show me” territory: it will need a steady drumbeat of orders and cleaner margins to keep new buyers around, not just one quarter and a raised range.
The next hard catalyst on the calendar is Friday’s U.S. producer price index for January, due at 8:30 a.m. EST — a report that can move bond yields and, by extension, financing costs for equipment buyers. Deere investors will also watch whether the stock can hold the $660 area when trading resumes Monday. (Bls)
