New York, March 5, 2026, 12:39 EST — Regular session
- Oil prices are climbing again, and the Dow has dropped roughly 1.5% by midday.
- Merck and Walmart drag on the price-weighted index
- Wall Street keeps tabs on Fed speakers, with attention also turning to Friday’s U.S. jobs data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped roughly 745 points, or 1.5%, to 47,994.03 by midday Thursday, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. A renewed surge in crude prices weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped 0.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.3%. 1
Inflation is front and center. With the Middle East conflict marking its sixth day, investors are now on alert for possible spikes in energy and shipping costs—especially if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain tangled up. That uncertainty leaves the Federal Reserve’s next steps even murkier. LSEG data shows traders have moved their bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut back to September instead of July. “If energy stays expensive, inflation could start climbing again,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments. 2
Fresh U.S. numbers left the rate outlook unresolved. Initial jobless claims came in unchanged at 213,000, while continuing claims ticked up to 1.868 million—a signal the labor market remains resilient, even with oil concerns simmering. “There is nothing in the latest claims data to change our view,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. She noted the firm still sees the Fed holding steady through June. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Friday’s payrolls to rise by 59,000, with unemployment pegged at 4.3%. 3
The pullback on Thursday followed a short-lived bounce. On Wednesday, the Dow added 238.14 points, or 0.49%, ending at 48,739.41 as oil prices leveled off and tech shares lifted Wall Street, clawing back a portion of the losses seen since the start of the Iran conflict. 4
The Dow, built on a price-weighted system, feels sharper moves when pricey stocks stumble—each drop in a heavyweight hits harder than it would in the S&P 500’s market-cap setup. Early Thursday, Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and Sherwin-Williams were tugging the index down, according to the Wall Street Journal. 5
Merck and Walmart both pulled the Dow lower as well, each dropping around 4% at one stage, based on MarketWatch’s tracking of the index’s movers. Being price-weighted, a $1 shift in any Dow member translates to about 6.16 points on the average, MarketWatch calculates. 6
Broadcom bucked the trend, climbing after it forecast over $100 billion in AI chip sales for next year—a sharp uptick as tech giants continue to ramp up data center investments. Summit Insights analysts said, “Our industry research suggests the opportunity for Broadcom is broadening rather than peaking.” Melius Research pointed to a robust AI demand pipeline that stretches into 2027. CEO Hock Tan told investors Broadcom has already locked in major chipmaking capacity through 2028. 7
But it’s oil making the splash. Brent spiked 3.59% to $84.32 a barrel, while U.S. WTI surged almost 6% to $79.06—supply and shipping worries over the Iran conflict fueling the moves, according to Reuters. JPMorgan flagged a risk: if the disruptions stick, as much as 3.3 million barrels per day in exports could be knocked offline. 8
This isn’t moving in a single direction. Even a hint that tensions are easing could send crude prices tumbling and trigger a quick bounce in cyclicals. If jobs numbers show less strength than expected, bets on an earlier Fed rate cut come back into play. On the flip side, a continued rise in oil heading into the weekend likely pressures traders to further dial back expectations for cuts. That spells more pain for the Dow’s industrial and consumer names.
The spotlight shifts to upcoming remarks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman are set to deliver comments later Thursday. Investors are also eyeing Friday’s U.S. payrolls release—another key hurdle for hopes the Fed might stick with a looser policy path, even as energy prices keep climbing. 9
