New York, Feb 20, 2026, 12:27 p.m. EST — Regular session
- The Dow slipped into negative territory, erasing initial gains that followed a U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.
- Investors took in weaker U.S. growth numbers alongside stickier inflation, which kept expectations for an imminent Fed cut in check.
- Treasury yields stayed supported as investors weighed refund doubts and the possibility of new replacement tariffs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped into negative territory Friday, erasing initial gains after the U.S. Supreme Court tossed out President Donald Trump’s broad global tariffs.
The move marks a notable policy shift, though the tariff saga isn’t over. Investors are shifting focus to possible refunds, new duties, and the potential revenue loss for the government. Meanwhile, economic data continues to weigh on interest rate expectations.
The morning brought new data on growth and inflation, putting pressure on what had been a relief rally. Stocks wavered. Treasury yields, on the other hand, edged higher.
By 12:27 p.m. ET, the Dow had slipped 141.18 points, losing 0.29% to 49,253.98. The S&P 500 was almost flat, inching up 0.86 point, or 0.01%, to 6,862.75. Over on the Nasdaq Composite, a gain of 40.88 points, or 0.18%, brought the index to 22,723.61. (Google)
Stocks got a lift after the court decision. At 10:23 a.m. ET, the Dow was ahead by 203.43 points, or 0.36%, at 49,571.90. Investors welcomed talk of lower import costs and less risk of sudden trade disruptions. “Greater risk appetite” was showing up in trading, said Todd Schoenberger, chief investment officer at CrossCheck Management. Still, he warned, “a rebate issue” could come back to haunt the market. (Reuters)
Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the 6-3 majority as the Supreme Court ruled Trump overstepped his powers under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act—IEEPA—targeted at national emergencies. The justices left open the issue of how to handle refunds for tariffs that have already been paid. (Reuters)
Economic data came in choppy. GDP climbed just 1.4% annualized for the fourth quarter, far short of the 3.0% economists in the Reuters poll were looking for. December’s core PCE — the Fed’s favored inflation metric that cuts out food and energy — ticked up 0.4%. “The core of the economy is resilient,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, though he thinks the Fed will likely keep rates “on prolonged hold.” (Reuters)
Bonds could be where the fireworks show up. Some investors are already eyeing a possible $150 billion to $200 billion in government duty refunds—a move that would swell deficits and risk attracting the so-called “bond vigilantes,” those buyers who dump Treasuries in protest of aggressive borrowing, sending yields climbing. “The big question for everyone is what exactly happens to refunds,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. (Reuters)
Sentiment swung sharply by Thursday’s close. The Dow dropped 267.50 points, or 0.54%, after mixed U.S. data and a gloomy Walmart outlook dented confidence. Crude climbed to a six-month high, driven by heightened U.S.-Iran tensions. “Today (investors are) weighing some of the economic data and what Walmart’s earnings are saying,” said Chuck Carlson, CEO at Horizon Investment Services. (Reuters)
Traders had plenty to chew on from company headlines. Shares of Akamai Technologies dropped close to 9% in after-hours action Thursday after its first-quarter adjusted profit outlook missed expectations. CEO Tom Leighton told Reuters memory costs have “probably doubled,” adding the company could consider price hikes. (Reuters)
The Dow remains under the 50,000 mark it topped for the first time on Feb. 6, finishing that session at 50,115.67 after climbing 2.47%. That threshold has turned into a psychological barometer for investors, as the market looks for gains past the big tech names but still reacts to moves in yields. (Reuters)
But there’s a clear risk here—the tariff victory could be short-lived. “The confusion it’s going to lead to is probably going to keep this market going back and forth,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. Investors are caught between the question of refunds and the real possibility the administration finds another way to put tariffs back in play. (Reuters)
Now, traders are looking for specifics: when IEEPA tariff collections will actually end, what the refund process might look like, and if fresh duties could show up fast via different legal mechanisms. Looking ahead, the January Producer Price Index lands next Friday, while the PCE inflation numbers for January are set for March 13. (Reuters)
