NEW YORK, February 19, 2026, 12:27 EST — Regular session
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 236.36 points, or 0.48%, to 49,426.30 as of 11:41 a.m. ET Thursday. Financial stocks and some tech names weighed on the blue chips. Private-equity shares came under pressure after Blue Owl Capital announced plans to sell $1.4 billion in assets and halt redemptions at a fund. Chip stocks continued to slide—the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index slipped 0.7%. Deere & Co surged over 12% following a higher profit outlook for the year. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were slightly in the red. 1
It’s a tough balancing act for investors, who are juggling earnings-driven swings with a macro backdrop that delays any clear signal from the Federal Reserve on easing. Put those threads together, and the Dow reacts—sometimes sharply—thanks to just a few heavyweight stocks.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index lands on Friday, and it’s the inflation measure the Fed watches closest. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has the next update scheduled for February 20. If the data comes in hot, bets on a March rate cut could fade fast, keeping the focus on mid-year. 2
Thursday’s early numbers left the rate picture as murky as ever. Initial jobless claims dropped by 23,000 to 206,000, coming in well below the 225,000 economists had predicted. But the U.S. trade deficit ballooned to $70.3 billion—much larger than the $55.5 billion forecast, according to Reuters. “Without a reason to move, traders are going to be conservative,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet. 3
The Federal Reserve’s minutes kept markets guessing. The record from the January 27-28 gathering revealed that while officials largely backed holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, opinions diverged over the next steps. “Several” policymakers were prepared to consider rate hikes if inflation proves stubborn, but others remained inclined toward cuts should price pressures ease. The document also drew attention to artificial intelligence, noting its potential to boost productivity but also highlighting valuation risks. 4
Oil prices moved higher, with U.S. crude jumping 2.6% to $66.71 a barrel. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran stoked worries about supply interruptions, sending energy stocks up, though most other indexes edged lower, the Associated Press said. 5
The retreat came after Wednesday’s stronger close—Dow up 0.3% to 49,662.66, S&P 500 finishing at 6,881.31, Nasdaq ending at 22,753.63. Nvidia surged after Meta Platforms announced a significant chip deal, according to AP. 6
The Dow runs on price weighting. If a heavyweight like Deere surges, it can offset broader declines—even when those drops hit banks or tech stocks harder in percentage terms.
But the risks are hard to ignore. Should Friday’s inflation numbers surprise to the upside, yields might climb, squeezing high-growth names and financials that are sensitive to rates. Another uptick in oil prices would only muddy the inflation outlook further.
Right now, traders have their eyes on Friday’s PCE numbers and upcoming Fed commentary, both seen as key signals on whether June actually shapes up as the first real chance for a quarter-point hike.
