LONDON, June 25, 2026, 10:08 (BST)
- Shares rose 6.3% to 573.6 pence at 0954 BST after a fourth 650-pence proposal.
- The bid spread was 76.4 pence a share, or about £579 million.
- A two-price model put deal odds near 70%, with more downside to the undisturbed price than upside to 650 pence.
- The stock traded above the top target in Castlelake’s 14-broker Bloomberg table.
easyJet shares rose in London morning trade after the board rejected Castlelake’s £4.93 billion proposal but agreed to give the U.S. investor limited commercial information. Castlelake has until July 5 to make a firm offer or walk away.
At 0954 BST, easyJet was 34 pence higher at 573.6 pence after touching 580 pence. Its market value was £4.35 billion. Across 758.01 million shares, the gap between the market price and Castlelake’s 650-pence proposal was about £579 million, equal to 13.3% upside from the quote.
That upside is smaller than the failure risk implied by the pre-bid price. Castlelake used 394.2 pence on May 28 as the undisturbed close. A return to that level would cut 31.3% from 573.6 pence. If the only outcomes were 650 pence or 394.2 pence, the share price would imply a completion chance of about 70%. The actual odds may differ because the stock need not return to 394.2 pence if talks fail.
Broker targets now offer little guide to the quote. Castlelake’s table listed 14 Bloomberg targets from 280 pence to 570 pence, with a median of 420.5 pence. It separately noted a 574-pence Morningstar estimate that Bloomberg excluded. At 573.6 pence, easyJet was 36% above the table’s median and almost level with the separate Morningstar figure. Deal odds, rather than the old earnings range, now set the price.
“The narrative has definitively changed,” Goodbody analyst Dudley Shanley said. EasyJet is “effectively in negotiations with Castlelake,” he said. “The reality is price is much more important than who’s actually buying.” Reuters
Castlelake’s four prices were 560 pence, 600 pence, 625 pence and 650 pence. The cumulative 90-pence rise added about £682 million to the proposed equity value. The latest increase alone added about £190 million.
Under the current plan, Castlelake and co-investors, including Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM), would own 49% of the bidding vehicle. EU nationals Peter Bellew and Mark Breen would own 51%. EasyJet still wants assurances on ownership and deliverability. The partial share alternative would be unlisted, could not be transferred and would carry no vote.
The open spread also prices the airline’s own trading risk. EasyJet posted a £552 million first-half pre-tax loss in May and kept its full-year outlook uncertain. Summer bookings were behind last year as fuel costs rose and customer confidence weakened.
For valuation context, easyJet had £434 million of net cash and £4.7 billion of liquidity at March 31. It reported £5.0 billion of owned assets, close to the £4.93 billion equity value of Castlelake’s proposal. The figures are not like-for-like because the asset number does not deduct liabilities.
The next deadline is 1700 BST on July 5. If no firm bid lands, easyJet’s next scheduled market update is its third-quarter results on July 23.
