New York, Feb 25, 2026, 12:40 EST — Regular session
- Eli Lilly shares eased after a volatile two days for obesity-drug makers
- Traders are weighing how much of the GLP-1 growth story is now about pricing, not just supply
- Next milestones include new product launches, fresh trial data and regulatory decisions
Eli Lilly and Company shares were down 0.8% at $1,033.36 by 12:40 p.m. EST, after swinging between $1,030.56 and $1,053.63 in the session. The stock has been whipsawed this week by a cluster of obesity-drug headlines across the sector. (Investing)
The moves matter because Lilly’s valuation is tied tightly to expectations for its fast-growing diabetes and weight-loss franchise. Any hint that the market is shifting from a race for supply to a fight over price can reset those expectations, quickly.
Investors are also still trying to map how durable the demand surge will be for GLP-1 drugs — medicines that mimic a gut hormone to curb appetite and lower blood sugar. The biggest question now is less about whether people want them, and more about who pays and at what price.
Lilly said on Monday it had U.S. FDA approval to launch a four-dose KwikPen version of its weight-loss drug Zepbound, designed to deliver a full month of treatment in a single device. The company said the KwikPen would start at $299 per month for cash-paying customers at the 2.5 mg dose and would be available across six dose strengths. (Reuters)
The same day, rival Novo Nordisk posted late-stage data on its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema that underperformed Lilly’s Zepbound in a head-to-head trial, sparking a sharp repricing in both stocks. “This is a worst-case scenario,” Markus Manns at Union Investment told Reuters, pointing to the challenge Novo faces in trying to close the gap. (Reuters)
On Tuesday, the focus flipped to pricing. Novo said it would cut U.S. list prices for Wegovy by 50% and Ozempic by 35% to $675 a month starting Jan. 1, 2027, a move it framed as helping patients whose out-of-pocket costs are tied to list price; Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen said it was “not a silver bullet” and did not mark the start of a price war. (Reuters)
That tug-of-war — better devices and trial wins on one side, tougher pricing math on the other — has left Lilly trading more like a headline stock than a defensive drugmaker. Traders said they were watching whether today’s dip is simple profit-taking after the recent run, or the start of a wider reset in GLP-1 pricing expectations.
There are risks on both fronts. If list-price cuts ripple into deeper rebates and discounting, Lilly’s margins could take a hit even if volumes keep climbing, and investors will start modelling a different earnings path.
There is also a competitive wild card: fresh trial readouts can still change the story, and regulators can tighten or loosen the rules around lower-cost compounded versions that have been filling the gap when branded supply is tight.
The next big catalyst for the group is regulatory. Lilly expects a U.S. decision on its rival weight-loss pill in April, a milestone that could widen the battle from injections to pills and put more pressure on pricing across the class. (Reuters)
