New York, Feb 25, 2026, 11:16 EST — Regular session
- First Solar dropped roughly 16%, as its 2026 sales forecast missed estimates.
- Management cited tariff expenses and delays with federal permitting as reasons for sluggish progress on large solar projects.
- Policy headlines remain in focus for traders, along with fresh U.S. capacity plans and the upcoming April earnings update.
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR.O) dropped sharply—down 15.6% at $205.40 as of 11:13 a.m. EST Wednesday. The U.S. solar panel producer’s fresh guidance rattled hopes for a bounceback any time soon. Earlier in the day, shares dipped as low as $196.45. 1
First Solar’s slide is notable—this company is right where U.S. industrial policy meets big-project construction schedules. Permitting hiccups or changes in trade rules? That’s when developers pause new orders, and suddenly suppliers are talking utilization rates instead of a packed backlog.
Trade dynamics are shifting again. On Monday, the U.S. Commerce Department slapped preliminary countervailing duties—tariffs aimed at offsetting foreign government subsidies—on solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The move targets about $4.5 billion in shipments. A final ruling is due in July. 2
First Solar late Tuesday projected 2026 net sales in the $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion range, falling short of the $6 billion consensus among analysts tracked by LSEG. Executives also flagged a $125 million to $135 million hit from tariffs this year. The company pointed to ongoing policy uncertainty and permitting delays dating back to President Donald Trump’s administration. Demand hasn’t picked up for its Series 6 modules out of Malaysia and Vietnam, with constraints persisting, even as First Solar’s new U.S. finishing line in South Carolina is on track for a fourth-quarter launch. RBC Capital Markets’ Christopher Dendrinos described the guidance miss as a “clearing event,” and Citi’s Vikram Bagri said First Solar still looks like “a 2027 story” with some catalysts down the road. 3
First Solar posted 2025 net sales of $5.2 billion, with the fourth quarter coming in at $1.7 billion. Net income worked out to $14.21 per diluted share for the year, $4.84 for the quarter. Looking ahead to 2026, the company projected 17.0 to 18.2 GW in volume sold—GW quantifies product output in power. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to land between $2.6 billion and $2.8 billion, filtering out interest, taxes, and certain non-cash expenses. A significant chunk of that outlook, the company noted, hinges on Section 45X tax credits, an advanced manufacturing incentive, amid its push to scale up U.S. production. 4
Analysts wasted little time adjusting their calls. Robert W. Baird dropped First Solar to “Neutral” from “Outperform” and slashed its price target to $205, citing fresh uncertainty around the company’s outlook following the call. 5
The company highlighted another front: technology. First Solar announced a non-exclusive patent licensing deal with Oxford PV, covering perovskite — the semiconductor class being eyed for next-gen solar devices — with an eye on possible U.S. thin film-perovskite products. Crystalline-silicon semiconductors, however, are off the table. No word on the terms. “This agreement allows us to continue pursuing viable pathways to manufacturing and commercializing thin film-perovskite products,” CEO Mark Widmar said. 6
Beyond earnings, First Solar on Feb. 24 filed a petition with the U.S. International Trade Commission, charging that imports of certain TOPCon products violate its patent. TOPCon refers to a high-efficiency crystalline-silicon cell design. The complaint targets affiliates of Canadian Solar, JA Solar, and JinkoSolar, among others. First Solar is looking to secure an import ban via an exclusion order, according to the filing. It also flagged a separate U.S. Patent and Trademark Office decision on a patent reexamination, expected March 15. 7
The near-term outlook remains tangled. Should permitting hang-ups persist and tariffs come in above expectations, First Solar may end up operating below its full capacity for a longer stretch. That squeezes margins, tax credits and U.S. finishing work or not.
April 23 marks the next major update for First Solar, with the company set to release fresh results. Investors are watching for changes around demand timing, tariff risks, or project sign-offs—anything that might alter the outlook for 2026. 8
