New York, Feb 11, 2026, 11:57 EST — Regular session underway
- Ford shares nudged up in late morning trading, with investors digesting a rebound forecast for 2026
- The automaker pointed to steep tariff and supply-chain expenses, despite aiming for greater profit and cash flow
- Ford will release its first-quarter results on April 28
Ford Motor’s shares ticked up roughly 0.9% to $13.69 on Wednesday, following the company’s 2026 profit and cash forecast. The outlook helped steady the stock despite recent headlines highlighting a loss.
The key issue for Ford’s stock is whether it can sustain profits from trucks and commercial vehicles while covering costs from tariffs, quality improvements, and the shift to electric vehicles.
Wall Street’s seen the turnaround tale too many times. Now, it’s demanding sharper execution—less surprise, fewer one-off items, and a more consistent route for the EV unit that continues to lose cash.
Ford reported fourth-quarter revenue of $45.9 billion and a net loss of $11.1 billion in its 8-K filing and quarterly update. Adjusted EBIT — earnings before interest and taxes, excluding special items — came in at $1.0 billion. The company expects adjusted EBIT to reach between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026, with adjusted free cash flow projected at $5 billion to $6 billion, which accounts for capital expenditures. Ford also set guidance for capital spending in the range of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. CEO Jim Farley said, “We improved our core business and execution,” and confirmed a goal of achieving an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. 1
Ford flagged a hit from a fire at an aluminum supplier and a tariff bill that came in heavier than expected after the company got less relief on imported auto parts. Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said a late tweak to the tariff program tacked on about $900 million in costs. Ford now anticipates around $2 billion in tariff-related expenses this year, mostly tied to aluminum for the F-150. CEO Farley also revealed plans to launch an electric pickup next year on a new $30,000 EV platform, while competitors in Detroit and overseas adjust their EV strategies and face their own charges. 2
Analysts were divided on how to weigh Ford’s outlook against its risks. Morgan Stanley noted the midpoint of the 2026 adjusted EBIT forecast came in 5.4% below its own estimate and 1.2% under consensus, pointing out that “Tariffs drove a modest miss in 4Q.” On the other hand, Barclays analyst Dan Levy described the 2026 forecast as having “largely cleared the bar” and found the initial assumptions reasonable. 3
During the earnings call, House specified the costs tied to aluminum workaround efforts. Ford anticipates $1.5 billion to $2 billion in temporary expenses in 2026 to keep supply flowing until the supplier’s hot mill restarts, expected “sometime between May and September.” She also noted that year-over-year tariff savings will be wiped out by these short-term costs. 4
Ford is pushing to demonstrate progress on quality, a key factor behind warranty expenses. Sources say that on Wednesday, Farley told employees companywide bonuses for salaried staff will be set at 130%, following gains in initial quality — defined as repairs during the first 90 days of ownership — which he called the best in ten years. 5
The path ahead is tight. Any changes to tariff rules, a prolonged aluminum supply issue, or a quicker-than-anticipated drop in U.S. demand could strain Ford’s cash reserves and push back its EV timeline.
Investors are now focused on updates regarding tariff risks, supply chain stability, and if cost reductions will actually boost quarterly margins instead of just being talked about. Ford’s next key update comes with its first-quarter report, set to drop after the market closes on April 28.
