Sydney, Feb 16, 2026, 17:01 AEDT — After-hours
- Shares in Fortescue (ASX:FMG) slid 4.7% on Monday, wrapping the session at A$20.21.
- Iron ore steadied near US$100 a tonne, following a steep decline on Friday.
- Next up: Fortescue’s half-year numbers on Feb. 25, with investors looking for clues on dividends and costs.
Fortescue Ltd ended Monday’s trade down 4.7% at A$20.21, after swinging from A$21.15 to A$20.20 during the day, according to Market Index data. Iron ore names came under pressure late, while benchmark 62% ore was quoted near US$99.66 a tonne. (Market Index)
This is significant—Fortescue’s fortunes are tethered to iron ore, the main revenue source for the company. As soon as the benchmark dips, traders usually rush to adjust expectations for miners’ earnings and dividends before taking a closer look.
All this comes just before a key date for Fortescue: its half-year results are set for Feb. 25. According to the investor calendar, the company will deliver its FY26 half-year update. (Investor Centre)
Iron ore prices slid nearly 3% on Friday, landing at roughly US$96.80 per tonne, according to ABC, with shares in Rio Tinto and BHP also ending the session lower. Analyst Lyndon Fagen at J.P. Morgan, quoted in the same report, stuck with his $99/t call for 2026 and projected $100/t in the second quarter of that year—then a move down to $95/t by the fourth quarter. Fagen highlighted an expected 66 million tonne bump in supply for 2026, with Simandou contributing close to 20 Mt. (ABC News)
Fortescue grabbed attention over the weekend, thanks to founder Andrew Forrest’s bold take on cost reductions as the miner moves away from fossil fuels. “We start saving a billion dollars a year next year by going fully green. Period,” Forrest told the Munich Security Conference. A company spokesman later clarified the figure, telling The Australian the savings would ramp up, eventually reaching about US$1 billion annually by 2030. (The Australian)
Traders saw patchy activity across the region as several top exchanges, including China, shut down for Lunar New Year, according to Reuters. With the holidays thinning out flows, commodity-linked shares faced a higher risk of sharp moves. (Reuters)
Iron ore remains the wild card for Fortescue. The key figure: 62% iron-content ore shipped to China, cost-and-freight. That’s the reference price analysts plug into their models, despite the jargon.
The tape isn’t one-sided. Iron ore tends to find its footing after the post-holiday lull, and when traders spot mills rebuilding inventories or catch a whiff of supportive policy, the sector can rebound in a hurry.
If prices keep drifting down into the mid-US$90s or below, cash flow takes a hit. That could spell trouble for dividend hopes, particularly with any jump in costs or if decarbonisation outlays end up higher than what the market’s bracing for. On top of that, a firmer Australian dollar works against miners, since iron ore deals are done in U.S. dollars.
Feb. 25 lands as the next big date—Fortescue unveils half-year numbers, offering investors an updated look at costs, capex, and where management stands on demand. Until that happens, iron ore prices and the pace of China’s post-holiday buying are expected to drive the action.
