New York, Feb 12, 2026, 12:46 EST — The session is now in regular order.
- U.S. RBOB gasoline futures dropped over 3% amid falling crude prices and persistently high inventories.
- Shares of refiners like Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 slipped lower by midday.
- Traders are eyeing the EIA inventory report on Feb. 19 for insights into demand and refinery activity.
U.S. gasoline futures plunged on Thursday, pulling refiner stocks down as traders reacted to fresh evidence of weakening fuel demand. RBOB gasoline futures—the key gauge for U.S. wholesale gasoline—dropped 6.7 cents, or 3.4%, settling at $1.9118 a gallon. Shares of Valero Energy slid 2.7%, Marathon Petroleum dipped 3.5%, and Phillips 66 lost 2.3% during midday trading. 1
This shift is significant since gasoline serves as the primary daily fuel gauge for U.S. consumers. Fluctuations in wholesale prices can rapidly tighten or boost refinery margins. These margins influence refinery output levels and eventually impact pump prices, though with some delay.
Traders face a tug-of-war between two forces: demand tends to strengthen heading into spring, yet supply hasn’t shown much tightening. Another inventory build fuels that debate, even as crude oil prices retreat from their recent spikes tied to geopolitical tensions.
U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels to 259.1 million in the week ending Feb. 6, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Crude inventories jumped 8.5 million barrels, reaching 428.8 million. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles—covering diesel and heating oil—dropped 2.7 million to 124.7 million. Refinery utilization slipped to 89.4%. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had predicted a 793,000-barrel rise in crude, a 400,000-barrel decline in gasoline, and a 1.3 million-barrel decrease in distillates, the EIA data revealed. 2
Crude’s drop dragged gasoline prices lower. Brent slipped 1.8% to $68.14 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped 1.9% to $63.39 by mid-morning. The sell-off came after the International Energy Agency downgraded its demand growth forecast for 2026. “It just ran out of steam,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. 3
Refiners took a hit today, even as PBF Energy announced an unexpected quarterly profit, boosted by better refining margins. Despite the positive earnings, the stock slipped during midday trading. “Oil markets remain dynamic, and many recent headwinds are now converting to tailwinds for refiners,” CEO Matthew Lucey noted. 4
Some analysts say the bigger picture for refiners isn’t all that bad, even though gasoline prices dipped today. The 3-2-1 crack spread — a rough gauge of margins for turning crude into gasoline and diesel — stood near $25 a barrel on Wednesday. Citigroup analyst Vikram Bagri noted in a report that “2026 will be another strong year for cracks given demand is outpacing supply.” 5
Gasoline bulls face plenty of risks. If inventories keep piling up through March, cracks could shrink quickly, refiners might cut back runs, and the market could start pricing in weaker driving demand well before it hits the pumps.
For consumers, fuel remains cheap. The U.S. national average for regular gasoline has been steady around $2.90 a gallon, holding below $3 for several weeks now, per recent EIA data referenced by Investopedia. 6
Traders are eyeing the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report set for Feb. 19. They’ll be watching closely for any changes in gasoline inventories, refinery utilization, and imports as the market gears up for the spring demand season. 7
