New York, February 13, 2026, 13:37 ET — Regular session
- Wholesale U.S. gasoline futures eased in midday trade after a steep drop a day earlier.
- U.S. pump prices are ticking higher into the holiday weekend, but remain below year-ago levels.
- Refiners traded higher, with investors still leaning on strong margin signals.
U.S. gasoline futures slipped on Friday, extending losses after a sharp selloff the day before, even as drivers saw a small uptick at the pump ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend. NYMEX March RBOB gasoline futures — the main U.S. wholesale gasoline contract — were down about a third of a cent at $1.9125 a gallon. The contract fell more than 3% on Thursday. (Barchart)
That split matters now because retail prices tend to lag wholesale moves, and gasoline is one of the most visible price signals for consumers. It also feeds quickly into inflation chatter, even when the move is only a few cents.
For markets, the bigger question is whether the current softness in wholesale gasoline sticks, or whether holiday driving demand and refinery constraints pull prices back up. Refiners and fuel retailers watch that spread closely, because it can widen or vanish fast.
U.S. inventory data last released this week showed gasoline stockpiles rising, adding to the weight on near-term pricing. Total motor gasoline inventories stood at about 259.1 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 6, up roughly 1.2 million barrels from the prior week, while commercial crude inventories rose to about 428.8 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell to roughly 124.7 million barrels. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
At the pump, prices are moving the other way — at least for now. AAA pegged the national average for a gallon of regular at $2.944 as of Feb. 13, up from $2.891 a week earlier and $2.796 a month earlier, while still below $3.149 a year ago. AAA also pointed to EIA data showing gasoline demand rising to 8.30 million barrels per day last week and total domestic gasoline supply climbing to about 259.1 million barrels. (AAA Fuel Prices)
Globally, the demand picture is not giving bulls much cover. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday it expects oil demand growth of 850,000 barrels per day this year and projected a sizeable supply surplus in 2026; it also flagged “economic uncertainties and higher oil prices” as factors weighing on consumption. The agency said eight OPEC+ members will meet on March 1, when they are expected to decide whether to resume output hikes in April. (Reuters)
Crude prices were steadier on Friday after U.S. inflation data showed consumer prices rose less than expected in January, helped by cheaper gasoline. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said “inflation is stabilizing,” calling it supportive for interest rates, but added: “The negative is going to be that OPEC could possibly increase production a little further.” (Reuters)
In U.S. stocks, refiners outperformed as gasoline and diesel margins stayed in focus. Valero Energy shares were up about 1.3% in midday trade, while Marathon Petroleum gained about 2.3% and Phillips 66 rose about 1.6%. The United States Gasoline Fund, an ETF that tracks gasoline futures, was down about 0.3%, and the Invesco DB Energy Fund slipped about 0.1%.
Refiners have leaned on margin strength even when outright fuel prices wobble. The widely watched 3-2-1 crack spread — a proxy for the value of gasoline and diesel versus the cost of crude — was around $25 a barrel as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report carried by Rigzone. “Commentary indicates that 2026 will be another strong year for cracks given demand is outpacing supply,” Vikram Bagri, an analyst at Citigroup, said in a report. (Rigzone)
The catch is that crack spreads can narrow quickly if crude stays firm while gasoline weakens, or if demand disappoints. And refinery operations can be a wild card: strong runs can rebuild inventories quickly, while outages or seasonal maintenance can tighten supply and push spot prices higher even when futures look soft.
Traders’ next hard read comes from Washington. The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for Feb. 19, with a revised release time because of the Feb. 16 federal holiday closure, and it is likely to be a key check on whether gasoline inventories keep building into late winter. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
