New York, February 11, 2026, 12:44 PM EST — The session is now in progress.
- Gasoline futures in the U.S. gained ground as crude prices pushed higher amid fresh tensions in the Middle East.
- Last week saw a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories, easing concerns about supply shortages.
- Shares of refiners rose as traders focused on upcoming inflation data and inventory reports.
U.S. gasoline futures climbed Wednesday, as RBOB gasoline—the key wholesale contract—increased 1.3% to roughly $1.985 a gallon. 1
This matters because gasoline prices quickly reach drivers and can swiftly shift inflation expectations. Traders also rely on these prices to gauge U.S. demand and refinery margins, particularly during this season when winter demand tends to fluctuate.
Price action is tugging both ways. Geopolitical tensions have pushed crude higher, yet U.S. supplies remain ample, which typically puts a ceiling on fuel rallies.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said total motor gasoline inventories climbed 1.2 million barrels last week, sitting roughly 4% above the five-year average for this period. Crude oil stocks rose by 8.5 million barrels, reaching 428.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate inventories dropped by 2.7 million barrels. 2
AAA’s daily tracker reported the national average price for regular gasoline at $2.937 per gallon on Wednesday, ticking up 1.6 cents from Tuesday. That’s roughly 20 cents cheaper than the same time last year. According to AAA data, prices rose about 5 cents compared to a week ago. 3
Refiner shares climbed in midday trading. Valero Energy was up around 2.1%, Marathon Petroleum increased close to 2.2%, and Phillips 66 jumped roughly 2.5%.
Crude prices got a boost. Brent and U.S. crude climbed nearly 2% Wednesday as investors zeroed in on escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S., despite a sizable U.S. crude inventory build that limited gains, Reuters reported. “Tension in the Middle East continue to support prices,” noted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Meanwhile, Mizuho’s Robert Yawger highlighted supply factors, saying “domestic production came back with a vengeance.” 4
Traders had shown caution a day before the government data dropped. Analysts at Gelber & Associates told Reuters the market was “hesitant to press either direction” until diplomacy and inventory figures offered clearer guidance. Meanwhile, PVM’s Tamas Varga warned prices might slip “unless there are concrete signs of supply disruptions.” 5
But the gasoline market carries risks. Large inventories and uneven winter demand can quickly turn a crude-driven rally into a short squeeze that fizzles out—especially if refinery output rises and supplies continue to grow.
Next on the docket: macro data. Traders are eyeing the U.S. consumer price index for January, set to drop Friday, Feb. 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Then, next week’s EIA petroleum report will offer a fresh look at gasoline stockpiles and demand. 6
