New York, Feb 17, 2026, 13:01 EST — Regular session
- March RBOB gasoline on NYMEX slipped roughly 0.1%, settling at $1.9080 a gallon. 1
- The U.S. Gasoline Fund (UGA) edged up roughly 0.4%, but shares of refiners Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 slipped between 1% and 2%.
- Regular gasoline across the U.S. averaged $2.917 per gallon, according to AAA data. 2
Gasoline prices headed one way, fuel-related stocks the other on Tuesday, with crude tumbling to a two-week low amid chatter of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. That took the edge off some of the supply-risk premium across energy markets. Brent slid $1.41, or 2.1%, settling at $67.24 a barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped 65 cents, or 1.0%, to $62.24, according to Reuters. “Sharp two-way swings” could stick around, since prices are being pushed by diplomacy as much as by supply-demand dynamics, said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet. 3
These shifts carry weight—gasoline prices are among the first that consumers notice, and they have a way of shaping inflation expectations quickly. For investors, that crude-to-gasoline spread is a key signal for refiner margins and short-term earnings potential.
RBOB, shorthand for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending, is the wholesale contract traders track. It’s a bellwether for U.S. gasoline heading into New York Harbor, and frequently stands in as a proxy for the broader gasoline market.
Refiners lost ground despite crude prices dropping, suggesting the market’s focus has shifted to margins over raw oil. If product prices slide more quickly than crude does, the “crack spread”—the gap between refined products and crude, often used to gauge refinery profit—shrinks.
Retail prices nationally barely budged, but that headline masks sharp regional discrepancies. California, in particular, is drawing attention again as it turns to more imports due to a drop in local refining. Gasoline is getting routed through the Bahamas to dodge expensive U.S.-flag vessel requirements, according to a Bloomberg piece picked up by Fortune. “On average, the closures could raise the cost of gasoline for consumers by between 5 and 15 cents a gallon,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis. 4
Another bank added a note of caution for oil bulls. Citi sees a possible boost for prices from geopolitics in the short run, but the bank is predicting that diplomatic moves later this year will drag on crude and product margins. Their baseline: potential deals could cut diesel and gasoline cracks by $5 to $10, it said. 5
Supply risk is still on the table. Russian officials reported a drone strike ignited a fire at the Ilsky refinery, hitting a reservoir stocked with oil products. It’s a fresh example of how fast refined-product supply can get knocked off track—even as crude takes a breather in the headlines. 6
The outlook remains messy. Should U.S.-Iran negotiations break down or regional tensions flare, traders may rush to put a risk premium back on, sending gasoline prices higher—particularly as spring refinery maintenance approaches.
Traders are eyeing U.S. government fuel-price data set for release Wednesday, Feb. 18, bumped back a day because of the President’s Day break. The EIA’s broader Weekly Petroleum Status Report—which covers gasoline inventories—also slides to Thursday, Feb. 19, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern, tracking the agency’s holiday schedule for the week ending Feb. 13. 7
