London, March 20, 2026, 13:49 GMT
- Glencore Plc shares were up 1.08% at 523.8 pence in late morning London trade on Friday. 1
- Its South African ferrochrome unit said it could walk away from discounted-power talks, with as many as 1,500 jobs at risk if no deal is reached by March 31. 2
- Morningstar this week lifted its fair value estimate for Glencore by 6% to 530 pence as stronger thermal coal prices improved the earnings outlook. 3
London-listed Glencore Plc rose about 1% on Friday, holding firm even after its South African ferrochrome business warned it could abandon talks over a discounted electricity package. The stock changed hands at 523.8 pence in late morning dealings, up 1.08% from Thursday’s close. 1
That matters because investors are still leaning into Glencore’s coal exposure after a sharp rerating this year. Reuters reported last week that, since Jan. 7, coal prices and Glencore’s shares had jumped 26%, while Morningstar analyst Jon Mills raised his fair value estimate for the stock this week to 530 pence. 4
In Johannesburg on Thursday, Glencore Ferroalloys CEO Japie Fullard said the current terms attached to Eskom’s proposed tariff package were not acceptable and he would not be “in a position to sign.” The offer would cut electricity prices to 0.62 rand per kilowatt hour from 1.36 rand for Glencore and Samancor Chrome, South Africa’s two biggest ferrochrome producers; ferrochrome is a key input in stainless steel. 2
Glencore has deferred layoff procedures until March 31, but Fullard said up to 1,500 jobs could still go if no agreement is reached. The pressure is not new: Reuters said power costs at South African smelters have risen tenfold since 2008, leaving only 11 of a possible 66 plants still operating, while Glencore’s own statement set March 31 as the cut-off for a deal. 2
The share move also looked firm against the broader market. The FTSE 100 was down 0.1% by 1039 GMT, while Rio Tinto added 0.41% and BHP gained 0.64% in London, suggesting Glencore’s rise was not simply a broad market rebound. 5
Coal is part of the cushion. Mills wrote on March 19 that the Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz should mean “much stronger earnings in the second half” for coal miners, and he said Glencore shares were “close to fairly valued” after his upgrade. Thermal coal is the grade burned in power stations. 3
There is some recent support underneath the story. At its February results, Glencore said it would return $2 billion to shareholders even after 2025 adjusted EBITDA fell 6% to $13.51 billion, and Chief Executive Gary Nagle said the “underlying momentum in H2 was clear,” helped by firmer metals prices and better copper volumes. Net debt, though, stayed above target at $11.2 billion. 6
The risk is plain enough. If the South African talks fail, the local unit has said it could walk away from the 62-cent tariff deal and resume the deferred layoff process, while the wider London market remains jumpy as higher oil prices feed inflation fears and bets on Bank of England tightening. 2
For the stock, March 31 is now the next clear marker. That is when the deferred job-cut process can restart if there is still no agreement on power prices. 7
