New York, Feb 18, 2026, 16:07 (EST) — After-hours
Gold bounced back more than 2% Wednesday, clawing its way toward $5,000 an ounce after dropping to a one-week low at $4,841.74 on Tuesday. The move came as peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended with no deal, and U.S.-Iran negotiations saw only modest headway. By 2:18 p.m. ET, spot gold had gained 2.4% to $4,992.11, with U.S. April futures closing 2.1% higher at $5,009.50. Marex’s Edward Meir pointed to “some nervousness” on the U.S.-Iran front, but noted bullion has stuck to a “very tight trading range” this month. Independent trader Tai Wong said gold is “likely to retake $5,000” even as Fed minutes tilted a bit hawkish. Reuters
This shift packs a punch. Gold now acts as a gauge on both Washington’s grip over fresh crises and the Fed’s progress—or lack of it. That $5,000 mark? Less a target these days, more a hair trigger.
Spot gold slid 2.2% to $4,884.46 by 1:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, while U.S. April futures dropped 2.8% to settle at $4,905.90. The move came as the dollar index edged up 0.3% and optimism around U.S.-Iran nuclear talks cooled demand for safe havens. “Bull markets need to be fed fresh fundamental fodder often,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. With much of Asia offline for Lunar New Year, attention shifted to Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s U.S. PCE report. Rate traders are still mostly looking for a first cut in June. Reuters
Federal Reserve minutes revealed a divided committee: a few officials flagged the possibility of another rate hike if inflation remains stubborn, while others weighed the timing—and even the need—for potential cuts. Gold, lacking yield, tends to suffer when interest rates climb and the dollar strengthens.
Safe-haven buying is straightforward. Investors get jittery over shocks—war, sanctions, tangled energy flows—and they move into assets they trust to keep value. Gold’s right up there, even if the price already feels rich.
Moves in other precious metals were even more dramatic, underscoring how headlines and patchy liquidity in sections of Asia continue to jolt positioning. That volatility tends to bleed into gold, as funds shuffle allocations throughout the sector.
The rebound, though, hardly looks tidy. A significant break in the Iran situation—or an inflation number hot enough to reignite rate-hike chatter—could easily slam bullion lower, dragging it well short of that $5,000 mark once more.
Friday, Feb. 20 brings the next event: U.S. December PCE inflation data. Traders are eyeing the numbers—will inflation ease off enough to support June rate cut expectations, or is another pivot coming?
