LONDON, March 2, 2026, 13:19 GMT
- Gold and silver prices rose as investors fled risk after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran widened
- Oil’s jump and falling equities sharpened demand for traditional safe havens
- Commentators pointed to tight silver exchange stocks and bullish options positioning as squeeze fuel
Gold prices rose more than 2% on Monday as U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran widened, pushing investors into safe-haven assets. Spot gold was up 2.1% at $5,390.38 an ounce by 1050 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 3% to $5,406.30; spot silver climbed 1.7% to $95.36, with platinum slipping and palladium edging higher. “What we’re seeing is an increase in safe-haven assets,” said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista, as BNP Paribas lifted its 2026 gold forecast and flagged a potential peak above $6,250. 1
The move landed across markets at once. Oil surged and stock markets fell on fears the conflict could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for crude and fuel, adding another inflation risk just as traders were trying to price the next turn in rates. 2
Silver’s rise has revived talk of a “short squeeze” — when traders who bet on lower prices get forced to buy back as prices rise — a theme that keeps returning whenever liquidity thins. A Seeking Alpha analysis by Envision Research said COMEX silver inventories had dropped sharply and pointed to low put-call ratios — an options gauge that compares bearish puts to bullish calls — as a sign of aggressive upside positioning. 3
In practice, squeezes rarely arrive with a bell and a banner. Futures exchanges can also raise margin — the cash traders must post to hold positions — which can cool fast money when prices whip around.
Some analysts have tied the latest jump to a mix of geopolitics and old-fashioned rates math. Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, told The Economic Times that the surge reflected a “flight to safety,” while the report also pointed to falling U.S. Treasury yields reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. 4
Supply questions sit under the silver story, even when the tape is trading headlines. China’s commerce ministry has used a licensing system for silver exports, with Reuters reporting late last year that 44 companies were allowed to export silver over 2026-2027. Separately, the Silver Institute has warned the market faces a sixth straight annual deficit in 2026, with investment demand expected to rise even as industrial demand cools. 5
Technical traders have also been loud in recent sessions, even as the headlines drown out everything else. Kitco columnist Jim Wyckoff published his weekly chart roundup for gold, silver, platinum and palladium on Friday, underscoring how much of the day-to-day fight still runs through momentum and levels. 6
But the risks cut both ways. Any rapid de-escalation in the Middle East, a rebound in yields, or a stronger dollar could pull some of the air out of gold and silver, and silver’s history suggests rallies can flip into sharp drops without much warning.
