New York, February 18, 2026, 12:12 EST — Regular session underway.
- Spot gold climbed 1.7%, hitting $4,957.70 an ounce, while April futures picked up 0.5%.
- Fed minutes land at 2 p.m. EST, with PCE inflation numbers coming Friday.
- Safe-haven appetite faded Tuesday, with U.S.-Iran negotiations making headway and sending markets lower.
Spot gold jumped 1.7% to $4,957.70 an ounce as of 9:15 a.m. ET on Wednesday. U.S. April futures tacked on 0.5%, reaching $4,977.80. Edward Meir at Marex pointed to “nervousness” related to Iran and Ukraine as the driver for the move. Traders are still factoring in two rate cuts for 2026 beginning in June, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Reuters
The rebound is significant. Bullion’s been acting as a gauge for two questions: duration of high rates, and just how rough the headlines turn. No yield from gold — the metal tends to lose ground when bond yields and the dollar push higher.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its late-January meeting at 2 p.m. EST. Meanwhile, the next PCE inflation report is set for Friday, Feb. 20. The PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, tracks what consumers are paying and tends to influence bets on when rates might come down. Federal Reserve
Gold tumbled to a one-week low Tuesday, dropping 2.21% to $4,882.47 for spot prices, with April futures falling 3.16% to $4,863.20. Safe-haven demand faded after signs of movement in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and as the dollar strengthened. Reuters
Liquidity remains thin. U.S. markets are closed for Presidents Day, China’s out for Lunar New Year, and UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo put gold “range-trading around $5,000/oz.” Zain Vawda at MarketPulse by OANDA trimmed his medium-term outlook, lowering it toward $5,100-$5,200. Reuters
Geopolitics isn’t letting up. After two days of U.S.-brokered Ukraine-Russia discussions in Geneva wrapped up with no deal, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moscow was stalling for time. Reuters
A day before, in the same city, Iran and the United States agreed on a set of “guiding principles” to steer nuclear negotiations. Still, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi cautioned this wasn’t a sign that a deal was close. Reuters
On rates, investors are weighing just how high the Fed’s threshold is for another cut after keeping policy at a 3.5% to 3.75% range. The minutes could shed light on how policymakers are juggling softer labor-market readings with inflation still stuck above target. Reuters
Silver led gains in the metals group, leaving gold behind for the day. Platinum and palladium were stronger, too. Price action stayed choppy—traders moved fast to pile in, then just as fast to exit.
Still, rallies like this one don’t always last. Should the minutes sound more hawkish or Friday’s inflation numbers surprise on the upside, yields and the dollar could jump—leaving bullion exposed. Any real diplomatic progress might also sap the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Right ahead: Fed minutes drop at 2 p.m. EST, then Friday brings the PCE release. Traders aren’t taking eyes off Geneva either—a single twist there has sent gold prices jumping all week.
