NEW YORK, Feb 19, 2026, 16:15 (EST) — After-hours trading.
- Spot gold steadied at $4,979.18 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for April slipped 0.2%, settling at $4,997.40.
- U.S.-Iran headlines are in the mix, but traders are also parsing Friday’s U.S. inflation numbers and the Fed’s likely rate trajectory.
- Silver ticked higher, while both platinum and palladium slipped.
Gold held its ground Thursday, hovering just below $5,000 an ounce following a volatile session. Spot gold finished flat at $4,979.18 per ounce, while April U.S. gold futures edged down 0.2% to settle at $4,997.40.
Gold’s been caught in a tug-of-war, directionless as traders weigh safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical tensions against the drag from higher U.S. interest rates. The metal shines when investors seek a refuge, yet rising rates can sap its appeal.
Friday brings the next key data release: the U.S. government’s December Personal Income and Outlays report lands at 8:30 a.m. EST. That includes the PCE price indexes, which the Federal Reserve watches closely as its main inflation measures.
“We’re being whipsawed and moving sideways with volatility,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. He pointed out that bullion’s getting a lift from tensions with Iran, but cautioned the market isn’t out of the woods—another leg down could be coming, and not just because of geopolitics.
Geopolitical jitters lingered after President Donald Trump gave Iran a 10 to 15 day window to strike a deal on its nuclear program, threatening “really bad things” if it doesn’t happen. That comment rattled nerves, reviving concerns about a broader conflict in the region. Reuters
Fresh U.S. numbers hit as well. Jobless claims dropped to 206,000 for the week ending Feb. 14, beating the forecast of 225,000—pointing to a labor market that isn’t cracking yet.
The Fed’s late-January meeting minutes dropped Wednesday, revealing a divided committee: some policymakers are leaving the door open to rate hikes if inflation proves stubborn, while others would consider cuts should price pressures ease. The direction of rates is crucial for gold, since the metal doesn’t yield interest.
Friday’s PCE release is shaping up as a key test for rate-cut wagers. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal are looking for headline PCE inflation at 2.8% year-over-year for December, with core PCE running at 3.0%, according to Investopedia. That same piece points out traders still expect the first Fed rate cut to come in June, based on CME’s FedWatch tool. Deutsche Bank’s Justin Weidner and his team say policymakers want to see “more clarity on inflation trends” before moving ahead with another cut. Investopedia
Right now, the main worry is clear. If the PCE figure lands above forecasts, that could drive yields and the dollar up, making financial conditions tougher—a setup that usually pressures gold. But if the number comes in on the softer side, gold might just get some breathing space to climb, no surge in geopolitical tension required.
Spot silver edged up 0.6% to $77.66 an ounce, clawing back after Wednesday’s surge. Platinum slipped 0.8% to $2,054.08. Palladium took a bigger hit, dropping 2.6% to $1,671.34.
The $5,000 level isn’t looking sturdy. Any sign of inflation picking up or a shift by the Fed toward sticking with higher rates could send gold sliding fast; and if U.S.-Iran tensions cool off, safe-haven demand could vanish in a hurry.
Focus shifts to Friday’s PCE report, while any fresh developments in U.S.-Iran talks could also steer gold’s next move.
