NEW YORK, Feb 19, 2026, 16:15 (EST) — After-hours
- Spot gold was flat at $4,979.18 an ounce; April U.S. futures settled down 0.2% at $4,997.40
- Traders are weighing U.S.-Iran headlines against Friday’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed rate path
- Silver edged up; platinum and palladium fell
Gold prices steadied on Thursday, holding just under the $5,000 mark after another choppy session. Spot gold was unchanged at $4,979.18 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.2% lower at $4,997.40. (Reuters)
The metal has struggled to pick a direction as traders juggle two forces that tend to tug it in opposite ways: safe-haven demand from geopolitical risk and the pull of U.S. rates. Gold often benefits when investors rush to safety, but it can lose ground when interest rates rise.
Friday is the next big checkpoint. The U.S. government is due to publish the Personal Income and Outlays report for December, which includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price indexes — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges — at 8:30 a.m. EST. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
“ We’re being whipsawed and moving sideways with volatility,” Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said. He added that tensions with Iran were supporting bullion, but warned the market could still see “one more leg down” for reasons beyond geopolitics.
Geopolitical risk stayed on the radar after President Donald Trump warned Iran it must reach a deal over its nuclear program within 10 to 15 days or face “really bad things,” in remarks that revived fears of a wider regional flare-up. (Reuters)
U.S. data also landed in the mix. Weekly jobless claims fell to 206,000 in the week ended Feb. 14, well below economists’ expectations for 225,000, suggesting the labour market is still holding together. (Reuters)
Minutes from the Fed’s late-January meeting, released on Wednesday, showed officials split on what comes next, with some open to hikes if inflation stays sticky and others leaning toward cuts if price pressure cools. For gold, the direction of rates matters because the metal does not pay interest.
Investors will use Friday’s PCE numbers to test current rate-cut bets. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal expect headline PCE inflation of 2.8% year-on-year through December and core PCE at 3.0%, Investopedia reported; the same report noted markets still see the first cut in June via CME’s FedWatch tool. Deutsche Bank economists led by Justin Weidner said policymakers need “more clarity on inflation trends” before cutting again. (Investopedia)
The immediate risk is straightforward: a hotter-than-expected PCE print could push yields and the dollar higher, tightening financial conditions in ways that tend to weigh on bullion. A softer reading could do the opposite, giving gold room to push higher even without fresh geopolitical shocks.
Elsewhere in metals, spot silver rose 0.6% to $77.66 an ounce after a sharp jump on Wednesday. Platinum fell 0.8% to $2,054.08, while palladium slid 2.6% to $1,671.34.
But the tape around $5,000 looks fragile. If inflation re-accelerates or the Fed leans back toward the idea of higher-for-longer rates, gold could give back gains quickly; if U.S.-Iran tensions ease, the safe-haven bid can evaporate just as fast.
Traders now turn to Friday’s PCE report and any new headlines on U.S.-Iran diplomacy as the next catalysts for gold’s direction.
