NEW YORK, March 23, 2026, 16:44 EDT
Goldman Sachs bumped up its 2026 oil price targets, citing risks from possible trouble in the Strait of Hormuz and a wave of strategic stockpiling that could keep supplies squeezed. Even after crude prices fell on optimism over potential U.S.-Iran talks, the bank now sees Brent averaging $85 a barrel, up from its previous $77 call. For West Texas Intermediate, the new forecast is $79, compared with $72 earlier.
This call lands at a pivotal moment: despite the market’s abrupt turnaround, the supply shock remains unresolved. Roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Asia, more vulnerable than most, sources about 60% of its oil imports from the Middle East.
Goldman has lifted its Brent forecast to $110 for March and April, a jump from the earlier $98 call, citing traders piling on a bigger risk premium as supply jitters mount. The bank’s risk scenario? Oil could briefly surge to $135 a barrel—if exports through Hormuz stay heavily choked for 10 straight weeks and the Middle East keeps losing 2 million barrels a day in output.
Brent finished Friday at $112.19, a level not seen since July 2022. That came right after President Donald Trump handed Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen Hormuz, warning he’d strike Iranian power plants if it didn’t comply. Tehran shot back, threatening Gulf energy infrastructure and desalination plants. “A 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore. Then came Monday’s selloff. Reuters
Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen isn’t calling this a de-escalation; she sees the U.S. action as pressure meant to corner Tehran. She also flagged that markets are too quick to bet Iran will retreat. No surprise then: banks keep nudging up their 12-month oil outlooks, undeterred by the recent plunge in spot prices.
The bullish setup may crumble quickly if diplomatic efforts hold. Brent finished Monday off 10.9% at $99.94; WTI dropped 10.3%, landing at $88.13. Trump’s announcement—delaying U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants for five days and mentioning talks with Tehran—sent prices tumbling, though Iran said no negotiations had happened. Goldman noted that if U.S. military operations stop, the risk premium could vanish in short order.
Even so, oil executives aren’t seeing Monday’s slide as a clear signal. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned that if disruption stretches past three to four months, the global economy could face systemic risk. He also pointed out the squeeze in diesel and jet fuel could outpace the crude market shock, citing China’s export ban for tightening supplies in Southeast Asia.
Echoing that sentiment, ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber put it bluntly at CERAWeek in Houston: “Energy security is not just a slogan,” he said. “It’s the difference between lights on and lights off.” Reuters
Traders looking for policy support may have to dial back expectations. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that another Strategic Petroleum Reserve release is “highly unlikely”—despite the International Energy Agency flagging ongoing talks with governments on potential additional stock drawdowns, and adding that the Hormuz jolt is hitting harder than the oil crises of the 1970s. Reuters
Goldman isn’t the only player making moves. Barclays bumped its 2026 Brent projection to $85 a barrel as of March 13. Just three days after, Bank of America and Standard Chartered also pushed their numbers higher, with the Hormuz closure still unresolved.
Right now, traders are juggling two narratives: a diplomatic shock can yank $10 off oil in a single session, but the supply squeeze hasn’t gone anywhere. Goldman figures the supply crunch is the one that sticks.
