NEW YORK, Feb 20, 2026, 16:53 EST — After-hours
- Grail shares slid about 50% after a large UK study missed its main goal for the Galleri blood test
- Investors are weighing what the readout means for U.S. regulators and Medicare reimbursement
- The company plans more follow-up and says it will lay out fuller data later this spring
Grail (GRAL.O) shares were last down about 50% at $50.21 in after-hours trading on Friday after the company said a pivotal UK trial of its Galleri cancer blood test missed its main goal. TD Cowen analyst Dan Brennan said Grail needs to be “proactive, transparent and deliberate” in explaining what the mixed readout means next. (Reuters)
The drop matters because the NHS-Galleri trial is one of the biggest real-world tests yet of “multi-cancer early detection” screening — a blood draw meant to flag signs of dozens of cancers before symptoms show up. Investors have been looking for proof these tests do more than find cancer; they need to move diagnoses earlier, when treatment has a better shot.
It also lands at a sensitive moment for Grail’s business. The company is pushing Galleri toward routine use, and that hinges on payers. Medicare coverage is a key hurdle because it sets the tone for much of U.S. reimbursement and physician adoption.
Grail said on Thursday it sold more than 185,000 Galleri tests in 2025 and posted full-year revenue of $147.2 million, while still running deep losses. It said it completed the final module of its U.S. FDA premarket approval submission for Galleri in January and pointed to a new federal law that creates a Medicare coverage pathway for multi-cancer early detection tests. (GRAIL)
The UK trial’s “primary endpoint” — the main target it was designed to hit — was a statistically significant drop in combined stage III and IV cancers, a standard meant to show the test shifts disease away from the hardest-to-treat cases. The study did not clear that bar, Grail said.
Morgan Stanley analysts said the market had been braced for the NHS-Galleri readout after a strong run in the stock and added they were “not surprised to see shares trading meaningfully lower.” (Investing)
Some bulls stayed put, but the tone cooled. Barron’s cited analyst Kyle Mikson keeping a buy rating while cutting his price target to $80 from $105, calling the selloff an “investor overreaction.” The report also said Galleri costs $949 and is not widely covered by insurance. (Barron’s)
Grail, for its part, leaned hard on what it said were positives inside the data. Chief Executive Bob Ragusa said the company was “excited to see the substantial reduction in Stage IV cancer diagnoses,” and Grail said it plans to extend follow-up in the trial by six to 12 months. It also said detailed results will be submitted for presentation at the ASCO 2026 Annual Meeting. (PR Newswire)
But the risk case is straightforward: if regulators or payers focus on the miss — or demand tougher evidence that screening changes outcomes at scale — Galleri’s path to broad reimbursement could slow. More delay means more cash burn, and the stock has already shown it can gap on a single data point.
For now, traders are heading into next week with one clear setup: heightened volatility around any further analyst resets, plus any added color from management on how the FDA may read across the UK results and U.S. trial data.
The next hard catalyst on the calendar is ASCO, where Grail has said it plans to bring more detail on the NHS-Galleri findings; the 2026 meeting runs May 29 to June 2 in Chicago. (Asco)
