London, June 15, 2026, 11:02 BST
- GSK shares dropped 0.4% to 1,976p even as European equities pushed higher.
- GSK’s $10.6 billion Nuvalent acquisition is its biggest deal in more than a decade, and investors are still sizing it up.
- Nuvalent’s deal closing is shaping up as the near-term stock mover. FDA decisions on two lung cancer drugs are due in September and November.
GSK plc traded lower on Monday in London, shares at 1,976p at 11:01 BST, off 0.4%, with the market cap at about £80 billion. The move stood out, with most European stocks up—Reuters reported the STOXX 600 hit a record after talk of a U.S.-Iran deal pushed oil lower and drove risk appetite higher. When a stock drops on an up market, it’s usually got its own issues. For GSK, investors keep looking at capital use and how it handles drug development risks. No fresh earnings news hit this session. Google
GSK’s plan to buy Nuvalent for $10.6 billion—$124 per share in cash—hangs over the stock. That’s a 40% premium to Nuvalent’s last close. Reuters said it’s GSK’s largest deal in over a decade. Nuvalent shares jumped about 40%. GSK slipped after the news. GSK CEO Luke Miels told Reuters it’s a larger deal because “essentially three products in one.” Bulls see it as GSK moving toward late-stage candidates instead of focusing just on early pipeline. Reuters
There’s a bear case as well. GSK said it plans to pay for the deal with a mix of new and existing debt and some cash, and flagged low-single-digit percentage dilution to core EPS between 2026 and 2028 if the deal goes through in the third quarter. Core EPS, or adjusted earnings per share, is what most big drug companies use to track profits by removing some items. Share prices often fall when the market sees dilution coming, more debt, or doubts that a deal will cover its cost of capital. Shares can climb if investors expect new sales and profit gains down the line to offset those risks. GSK said Nuvalent could help revenue start growing in 2027 and be accretive to core EPS by 2029. GSK
Regulatory dates are next. Nuvalent’s main programs, zidesamtinib and neladalkib, sit with the FDA, up for review on September 18, 2026, and November 27, 2026. GSK flagged both as Breakthrough and Orphan picks and said they could hit the market this year if approved. The Nuvalent tender should wrap up in Q3, but what matters for GSK shares is how the FDA rules. That will tell if the acquisition’s price tag pays out. GSK
GSK’s first-quarter sales rose 5% at constant exchange rates to £7.6 billion. Specialty Medicines were up 14%, Oncology gained 28%, HIV increased 10%. Vaccines grew 4%. The company kept its 2026 guidance for 3% to 5% turnover growth and 7% to 9% core operating profit and core EPS growth. The outlook for a 70p dividend this year is unchanged. Investors now wait for any news on Nuvalent and pipeline progress. GSK
GSK shares don’t look cheap at this level, more like fairly priced. Google Finance shows a P/E of 13.88. The average analyst price target for the next year is 2,109.64p, about 6.8% over the current market price. Analyst ratings break down as 4 buys, 8 holds, 2 sells. That seems to fit where the GSK story sits now: earnings coming in, the dividend still there, and maybe the pipeline shifts sentiment. Still, Nuvalent’s cost, execution risk, plus the HIV patent cliff keep risk on the high side. Google
