New York, Feb 27, 2026, 13:32 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX heating oil futures climbed about 3% in afternoon trade.
- Crude rose as traders priced in Middle East supply risk.
- OPEC+ signals and U.S. inventory data sit at the top of next week’s agenda.
NYMEX heating oil futures rose sharply on Friday, keeping pace with a broader rally across the oil complex. The April contract was up 7.41 cents, or 2.93%, at $2.5999 per gallon by 1:20 p.m. ET. 1
The move matters because heating oil is a key distillate fuel — used for home heating in parts of the U.S. and as a proxy for diesel pricing — and it can swing quickly when traders start hedging supply shocks.
This week, the driver has been crude, not a sudden shift in U.S. distillate fundamentals. Brent climbed about 3% to $72.84 a barrel and U.S. WTI rose about 3.6% to $67.54, with the market focused on U.S.-Iran nuclear talks that rolled into more discussions next week. “Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM. 2
In the physical market, U.S. spot prices looked calmer before Friday’s futures jump. The U.S. Energy Information Administration showed NY Harbor heating oil at $2.55 a gallon at Thursday’s close, down 1.0% on the day, while NY Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel was $2.70 a gallon, also down 1.0%. 3
Inventory data have not given bulls a clean story. EIA weekly supply estimates showed U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks edging up by 252,000 barrels to 120.351 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 20, while commercial crude stocks surged to 435.804 million barrels; refinery utilization fell to 88.6%. 4
Oil traders have largely shrugged off the crude build because geopolitics keeps setting the tone. “A bearish (EIA) report with a large crude build… the prices impact was however limited,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS, pointing to Middle East tensions as the bigger force. 5
A Reuters poll published on Friday captured how that risk premium is bleeding into forecasts. “Oil prices are bloated with a decent geopolitical risk premium,” said Norbert Rucker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer, while warning that attention could shift back to oversupply later in the year. 6
Producers are also moving, and traders are watching barrels, not just headlines. UAE producer ADNOC is offering extra Murban crude for April and Saudi Arabia is lifting production and exports as part of contingency planning, a dynamic that could cushion crude tightness but also complicate product cracks. “The boost in exports will definitely create a short-term buffer,” said Scott Shelton, an analyst at TP ICAP. 7
But heating oil has its own risk profile. A diplomatic breakthrough can unwind the crude premium fast, and late-winter demand can fade just as supply recovers — especially if distillate stocks keep building and refineries run harder after maintenance.
Next up: traders will be watching the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, March 1, and the next U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesday, March 4 — typically released at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time. 8
