New York, Feb 28, 2026, 15:39 EST — The market has closed.
- Home Depot finished up Friday, capping off a volatile week for stocks tied to housing.
- Investors are still trying to gauge if the spring season will actually boost demand for larger-scale remodels.
- Mortgage rates, housing turnover, and the latest tariff headlines continue to drive sentiment for the group.
Home Depot (HD.N) finished Friday at $380.72, up 1.5%, breaking a two-day slide even as the broader market dipped. Roughly 4.8 million shares changed hands—well above the stock’s 50-day average. Shares are still trading about 11% under the 52-week peak from September. 1
U.S. markets are closed for the weekend, leaving traders eyeing Monday for answers: Will housing inventory finally give, or stay frozen? And what’s the impact for discretionary home improvement spending if it doesn’t budge?
Home Depot stands right at that crossroads. It’s a measure of what contractors have lined up, how much DIY shoppers are biting, and just how willing homeowners are to redo a kitchen or replace floors while borrowing costs keep dictating the pace.
Home Depot’s latest filing showed fourth-quarter sales down 3.8% to $38.2 billion, while comps inched up 0.4%. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $2.72. The board bumped the quarterly dividend by 1.3%, now $2.33 per share. Looking ahead, the company projected flat to 2% comp sales growth for fiscal 2026 and sees total sales rising between 2.5% and 4.5%. 2
On Tuesday, CFO Richard McPhail described conditions as a “frozen housing environment” since 2023. The company has relied more on pro customers to balance out sluggish large-scale DIY projects. David Wagner, equity chief at Aptus Capital Advisors, said they “set the appropriate initial bar” following some weather-related volatility earlier in the year. 3
Midweek, the tone shifted as Home Depot and Lowe’s offered up cautious remarks, putting pressure on housing-linked stocks. Reuters pointed to fresh data: purchase-mortgage demand slipped, despite a slight dip in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. 4
“Pretty unique environment,” is how Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison summed it up—high rates, tariffs very much in the mix. Over at Emarketer, Zak Stambor flagged the cautious guidance, suggesting the path forward could be anything but smooth. 5
Friday’s bounce leaves the debate unresolved. What’s clear: buyers keep stepping in when the stock trades off broader macro jitters, not because of anything new from the company itself.
Now the focus shifts to Home Depot’s pro customers: will they keep opening their wallets if the DIY crowd stays cautious? Rate cuts are key, since cheaper financing usually boosts home sales — and that’s when major renovations happen.
The setup can turn quickly. Should mortgage rates stay high or supply remain limited, demand for big-ticket items could drag on for months. And if there’s a cost shock — tariffs included — retailers may find their margins squeezed if they can’t pass those higher costs along.
March 12 marks the cutoff for Home Depot shareholders to be eligible for the higher dividend, and checks go out March 26. Until then, every new data point on U.S. rates or housing is likely to move the needle for traders once markets are back open Monday.
