LONDON, June 25, 2026, 11:09 BST
- IAG was up 1.7% at 489.10 pence by 1101 BST, hitting a new 52-week high at 490.50p.
- The stock dropped after going ex a 4.314p final dividend. Including the dividend, the one-day return is closer to 2.6%.
- The adjusted gain topped the FTSE 100’s 0.3% move by roughly 2.3 percentage points.
IAG (LON:IAG) is looking at a smaller fuel bill than what it flagged in May. Shares rose Thursday after adding 2.8% Wednesday, which also saw the stock notch a 52-week high.
The shares are trading at 489.10p with the 4.314p dividend, putting the total value at 493.414p. That’s up from Wednesday’s 480.90p close. On a total-return basis, that’s a 2.6% jump for the day, not just the 1.7% price move that shows up on the screen.
Brent futures dropped 1.7% to $72.46 a barrel, the lowest since February 27. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Strait of Hormuz flows are almost back to pre-war levels, but full normalisation may take weeks. UBS Group (SWX:UBSG) analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, “Most of the increase in flows from the Gulf is outbound.” Reuters
Fast changes in oil prices may squeeze airline earnings before carriers can adjust fares. Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) analyst Nicolas Owens said short-term profits can go “in the opposite direction of the fuel price” since a lot of tickets got priced with older, lower fuel costs. Reuters
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBK) analyst Jaime Rowbotham now sees IAG’s 2026 fuel costs at €8.56 billion, cutting €440 million from the group’s May forecast near €9 billion. Rowbotham said the forward curve “come down significantly” and moved his price target up to 540p, from 460p. Lse
IAG said the relief is not one-for-one. The company is 70% hedged for the rest of 2026 and expects to recover about 60% of higher fuel costs through revenue and cost measures. It trimmed planned capacity growth to about 1% for Q2 and 2% for Q3. Annual profit and free cash flow will miss earlier targets, IAG said.
IAG CEO Luis Gallego told investors in May the company is “taking the necessary action on yields, costs and capacity.” J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) analyst Harry Gowers expects “strong free cash flow generation to remain intact.” Reuters
Deutsche Bank’s estimate misses €440 million, or around 8.8% of IAG’s expected 2025 operating profit before exceptional items, which stands at €5.024 billion. That gap is close to the group’s entire forecast 2025 dividend of €448 million—about 98%. The fuel cost comes from a Deutsche Bank analyst, not updated company guidance.
IAG will post second-quarter numbers on July 31.
