LONDON, June 24, 2026, 13:05 BST
International Consolidated Airlines Group picked up 1.2% to 473.6 pence by 1259 BST on Wednesday, coming off a new 52-week top at 473.9 pence. The British Airways parent traded ahead of a quiet FTSE 100. Lower oil prices helped, easing expected fuel costs for airlines.
Deutsche Bank has cut its estimate for IAG’s 2026 fuel bill to €8.56 billion. That’s €440 million, or 4.9%, under IAG’s guidance in May, which was around €9 billion. The difference is 8.8% of IAG’s €5.024 billion operating profit before items labeled exceptional in 2025.
Stock is up before IAG issues a formal upgrade. Deutsche Bank’s new target on the shares is 540 pence, which adds about 14% from the midday price. Shares are already over the bank’s old 460-pence target.
Brent crude dropped 1.1% to $75.93 a barrel in Europe, hitting levels last seen before the Iran conflict. More ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and a short-term U.S. waiver could mean more Iranian oil on the market.
“The forward curve has also come down significantly,” Deutsche Bank analyst Jaime Rowbotham said. The forward curve, which shows current prices for future fuel deliveries, is key for airlines. Deutsche Bank assumed $910 a metric ton for IAG’s unhedged fuel in the third quarter, $875 for the fourth quarter and $830 for 2027. Investing
IAG won’t see the full benefit this year. On May 8, the group said it had hedged about 70% of its 2026 fuel at previous price levels. IAG also lowered earlier forecasts for yearly profit, free cash flow, and capacity. “We are taking the necessary action on yields, costs and capacity,” Chief Executive Luis Gallego said. Reuters
IAG pulled back on its own share buybacks as the stock kept moving up. The company picked up 3.41 million shares between June 15 and June 19 in its latest €500 million repurchase plan. That’s 44% less than the 6.10 million shares it bought the week before. The most recent buy represented about 0.077% of the group’s shares in the market, not counting treasury stock.
The stock hit a fresh high, even though buybacks slowed. That doesn’t confirm other investors are stepping in for company demand, but it goes against claims that the repurchase was the only thing behind the move. At midday, the price sat 2.7% over the top of IAG’s London buyback range from last week.
Deutsche Bank bumped its target on Air France-KLM up to €11 from €9 and lifted Lufthansa’s to €8 from €7, but still kept both at hold. IAG remains the only buy among the three.
The €8.56 billion fuel number is from analysts, not from new company guidance. The U.S.-Iran deal still hasn’t closed, and Tehran pushed back against reports of unlimited nuclear checks. Oil could rally again if the Strait of Hormuz sees more trouble. IAG’s fuel hedging means it won’t feel lower spot prices right away. Higher fares or cuts in capacity could hit bookings too.
IAG shares will trade ex-dividend on Thursday, June 25. The gross payout is €0.05 a share, with payment set from June 29. The company is due to release its next operating update with second-quarter results on July 31.
