New York, Feb 12, 2026, 05:55 (EST) — Premarket
International Business Machines Corp shares dropped 6.5% on Wednesday, closing at $272.81.
The decline thrust IBM into focus during a session marked by falling software stocks amid fresh chatter about AI-driven disruption. U.S. stocks ended roughly flat as traders pulled back on rate-cut bets following January’s jobs report. Investors are now eyeing the January Consumer Price Index, set for Friday, as a key test of the “higher-for-longer” narrative that usually pressures tech valuations first. 1
Pressure is mounting around a fundamental issue: which companies benefit from generative AI, and which face disruption. “There’s a schizophrenic personality on AI right now,” said Stephen Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners, to the Wall Street Journal. On the same day, software stocks like Salesforce and Intuit dropped more than 4%. 2
Technicians pointed out that IBM slipped below a key threshold. The stock closed under its 200-day moving average — a metric tracking around 200 trading sessions’ average closing prices — after dropping past roughly $285.98, according to Nasdaq data. 3
IBM’s $11 billion bid for Confluent is back in focus after the target released quarterly results late Wednesday. According to an SEC filing, Confluent posted Q4 revenue of $314.8 million, up 21%, with subscription revenue hitting $301.6 million. The company reported a non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.12, excluding certain expenses like stock-based compensation. CEO Jay Kreps noted 23% growth in Confluent Cloud revenue for the quarter, while CFO Rohan Sivaram highlighted “margin expansion at scale.” Confluent confirmed it agreed to be acquired by IBM at $31 per share in cash and will skip an earnings call or guidance updates while the deal is pending. 4
Confluent shareholders will vote on the merger agreement this Thursday during a special meeting, the company’s proxy statement reveals. The filing notes that Confluent’s board recommends the deal; if approved, each share will be exchanged for $31 in cash.
IBM has been emphasizing “agentic AI” — AI that plans and acts autonomously rather than merely responding to prompts — within its infrastructure offerings. On Tuesday, the company introduced a new FlashSystem storage line “co-run by agentic AI,” claiming it can reduce manual storage management by as much as 90% in internal tests. These systems will be available starting March 6. 5
Right now, the market’s focus is juggling two shifting factors: who comes out ahead in AI and where U.S. interest rates head next. A volatile CPI report or an unexpected result from the Confluent vote might keep IBM shares under close watch heading into next week.
IBM offers software, consulting, infrastructure, and financing services, relying heavily on hybrid cloud and enterprise IT spending. On slow days, that mix can seem defensive, but the stock quickly reacts when investors debate AI’s impact on traditional tech budgets. 6
Traders will be eyeing the Confluent shareholder vote closely, searching for any hint of delay or pushback. Then, all attention shifts to Friday’s inflation report, which could sway rate expectations again. After that, investors want to see if IBM’s fresh “agentic AI” product rollout actually drives bookings, especially with the new FlashSystem line gearing up for launch.
