Sao Paulo, Feb 28, 2026, 03:51 BRT — Market closed
- Ibovespa fell 0.92% for the week ended Feb. 27, slipping 1.16% on Friday to 188,786.98 points
- Foreign inflows helped drive a record close midweek, but the IPCA-15 inflation surprise hit sentiment late
- Next week brings Brazil’s Q4 GDP on March 3, ahead of the March 17–18 Copom rate decision
Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa ended the week ended Feb. 27 down 0.92%, its first negative week of 2026 after a run to fresh highs. The index closed Friday down 1.16% at 188,786.98 points, though it still finished February up 4.09%. 1
The pullback matters because a lot of the month’s trade leaned on foreign money and falling rate expectations, not just single-stock stories. Overseas investors were net buyers of 15.267 billion reais in February through Feb. 25, and the flow helped push the Ibovespa to a record closing high of 191,490.4 points on Feb. 24, exchange data showed. 2
Then inflation hit the tape. Brazil’s IPCA-15, a mid-month inflation gauge, rose 0.84% in February, above a 0.57% forecast in a Reuters poll, taking the 12-month rate to 4.1% and stirring doubts over how fast the central bank can ease. “As things stand, we continue to expect a 50bp cut, but the risks to this view have grown,” Capital Economics economist Kimberley Sperrfechter wrote; Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Andres Abadia said disinflation remains “broadly intact.” 3
Friday’s damage came from the names that usually set the pace on B3. Vale slipped 0.83% and Petrobras fell 0.71%, while most big banks ended lower; Bradesco edged up 0.81%. Oil producer PRIO climbed 4.11% to 54.49 reais, while Cosan slid 5.27% to 6.29 reais and Natura dropped 5.20% to 9.11 reais; turnover was 35.7 billion reais and the dollar ended little changed at about 5.13. Nomad’s Bruno Shahini pointed to the “carry” trade — gains from holding a higher-yielding currency — as one factor supporting the real. 4
Earnings season added its own noise. Exchange operator B3 said 2025 revenue totaled 11.1 billion reais, up 5% from 2024, while recurring net profit rose 10% to 5.3 billion reais; CFO André Veiga Milanez said the company kept “discipline” even in a “challenging” macro backdrop. 5
But the next leg depends on inflation doing what investors want it to do — cool — and doing it soon. Another upside surprise in prices or activity could lift local yields, slow the foreign bid and squeeze rate-sensitive stocks that have been dragged higher on easing talk.
The calendar gets noisy straight away. IBGE releases fourth-quarter GDP on March 3, followed by producer prices on March 4, January unemployment on March 5 and industrial output on March 6; February IPCA inflation is due March 12. 6
The bigger checkpoint sits a little further out. Brazil’s central bank has scheduled its next Copom meeting for March 17–18, when policymakers decide the Selic benchmark rate, and traders will parse the size of any first cut and the tone for what comes next. 7
Markets reopen Monday with the question they ended Friday with: was this just a breather after records, or the start of a tougher stretch. Tuesday’s GDP print is the first hard test.
