SYDNEY, June 29, 2026, 06:04 AEST
- Judo Capital finished the week at A$0.88, down 40.5%. The ASX 200 slipped 0.73% during the week.
- The bank flagged three loan exposures totalling about A$70 million to A$80 million, or 0.5% of what it expected for June. Since June 24, the shares have lost close to A$730 million in market value.
- Judo cut its FY26 profit before tax target to A$163 million to A$169 million. The FY27 outlook stays at A$210 million to A$220 million.
Judo Capital Holdings Limited ASX:JDO is in the spotlight Monday as investors look past profit guidance and focus more on how its credit model holds up.
ASX trading hadn’t started yet as of 06:04 AEST. Live prices kick in at 10:00 a.m. AEST and update until 4:13 p.m. Judo shares last traded at A$0.88, just above their 2026 low of A$0.82. The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) finished Friday at 8,764.20, up 0.18% for the session but down for the week.
What counts is the drop. Judo was valued at A$986.7 million or A$0.88 a share. Shares ended at A$1.535 on June 24, and with the new share count, that’s about A$734 million gone since before the update. The midpoint for FY26 PBT is down A$19 million, now at A$166 million. The prior target was A$185 million.
| Measure | Before June 25 update | Latest marker | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| JDO share price | A$1.535 at June 24 close | A$0.88 | -42.7% |
| Market value | about A$1.72 billion | A$986.7 million | fell roughly A$734 million |
| FY26 PBT midpoint | A$185 million | A$166 million | down A$19 million |
| Market value hit vs PBT cut | — | — | roughly 39x |
Traders seem more focused on Judo’s loan book risk than on profit for the year. FNArena estimated the three defaulted exposures are between A$70 million and A$80 million. Judo said its gross loans and advances will be A$14.6 billion to A$14.7 billion by June 30. That means the bad loans are about 0.5% of the whole book, based on the midpoint.
| Asset-quality marker | April update | June 25 update | Investor issue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90-days-past-due and impaired loans | 2.65% of GLA at March 31 | seen hitting about 3% at June 30 | more slippage found in the loan book |
| FY26 cost of risk | 70 bps-75 bps of average GLA | A$116 million-A$122 million | provisions forced guidance lower |
| 2H26 net interest margin | around 3.15% | over 3.2% | margin held up but bad loans weighed |
| CET1 ratio | 12.6% as of March 31 | about 12.4% expected for June 30 | capital stayed above 12% |
Judo CEO Chris Bayliss said the lender’s credit results came down to a handful of customers but still called the outcomes “disappointing”. The bank said it found these exposures after going through customer files in the third quarter. Margins and deposits both stayed within its guidance.
Bayliss took a tougher tone with analysts, according to Banking Day. “We had no line of sight,” he told the call, adding that the loans “deteriorated very rapidly.” The borrowers were blind and curtain makers, financial planners, and construction service firms, Banking Day said. Banking Day
Analysts split the debate: are the three loans one-off, and is Judo’s risk pricing fit for an SME lender? FNArena said Citi saw the issues as unique to those loans. Macquarie questioned how Judo monitors its book. Morgan Stanley pointed to lending standards and concerns about the overall business model.
Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia said the new provisioning raises the question of whether Judo is pricing risk properly, but he doesn’t view it as a “systemic problem.” Morningstar kept its A$1.60 fair value target steady, calling the stock more than 40% undervalued after the fall. Morningstar
Morgans is sticking with its buy on Judo but cut its target price to A$1.47, according to Motley Fool, citing the broker’s take that the selloff went too far. Morgans said shares are trading at less than 7x FY27 earnings, while Judo is still guiding to about 30% PBT growth for both FY26 and FY27.
Judo will deliver its FY26 numbers Aug. 18. Focus stays on the 90-days-past-due and impaired loan ratio, exit cost-of-risk, and whether net interest margin beats 3.2% to offset the credit reset.
