SYDNEY, June 26, 2026, 06:05 (AEST)
- Judo Capital Holdings shares finished down 40.4% at A$0.915, after dropping as low as A$0.82.
- Turnover was 98.12 million shares, about 22.5x the quoted average.
- Judo’s market value dropped by an amount roughly 36 times larger than its cut to FY26 profit guidance.
Judo Capital Holdings Limited (ASX:JDO) slumped 40.4% on Friday, losing close to A$700 million in market cap after the lender said three fresh exposures pushed it to boost its forecast credit charge.
Judo Capital shares (ASX:JDO) closed Thursday at 91.5 Australian cents, falling from A$1.535. The stock started the session at A$1.17, dropped to a 52-week low of 82 cents, then trimmed some of the decline.
Judo Bank’s (ASX:JDO) 62-cent drop wiped around A$694 million from its market cap, based on 1.12 billion shares. The bank lowered its FY26 profit-before-tax guidance midpoint by A$19 million to A$166 million, down from A$185 million. That market decline is about 36.5 times the profit cut and nearly six times the midpoint for its full FY26 cost of risk.
The gap points to traders cutting Judo’s underwriting record and faith in its future targets, rather than just pricing in the short-term hit from those three borrowers.
Judo now sees FY26 cost of risk landing at A$116 million to A$122 million. The bank expects loans at least 90 days overdue or impaired to hit roughly 3% of gross loans and advances by June 30. It lifted provisions mostly because three separate exposures worsened after a third-quarter review.
Chief Executive Chris Bayliss said the credit outcomes were tied to “a small number of customers”, calling the update “nevertheless disappointing”.
Judo’s update showed some stronger numbers elsewhere. Gross loans were more than A$14.4 billion as of June 24, with management guiding for A$14.6 billion to A$14.7 billion by June 30. The bank now sees second-half net interest margin topping 3.2%, up from about 3.15% previously. Judo also said the cost-to-income ratio should drop below the first half’s 48.5%.
Judo is now guiding for FY27 PBT of A$210 million to A$220 million. The midpoint, A$215 million, lands about 16% under the earlier market consensus of A$255.1 million. For FY26, the new midpoint is about 8% lower than consensus.
JPMorgan’s Andrew Triggs said it was “only limited comfort” that higher credit costs were focused on three borrowers. Triggs added there was “limited discussion of pre-provision profit drivers in FY27”. He expects earnings estimates to drop 8% for FY26 and 15% for FY27. ABC News
Volume ended at 98.12 million shares, or 8.8% of the float and 22.5x the usual daily level from Google Finance. Shares finished up 11.6% from the session’s low but didn’t recover to the open.
Judo says capital isn’t the main limit right now. The bank forecasts its common-equity Tier 1 ratio at roughly 12.4% on June 30, which is above its new management range of 11% to 12%. A A$750 million capital-relief securitisation done this month boosted its pro-forma March ratio by about 60 basis points.
S&P/ASX 200 ended Thursday down 0.7%. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) dropped 1.3%. National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) lost 3.4%. Both moves were small compared to Judo’s fall.
Judo is set to release full-year numbers on August 18. Investors will look at the final provision charge, plus shifts in overdue or impaired loans. Management is expected to get questions about what kind of earnings base will be needed to hit the FY27 PBT target range.
