New York, Feb 11, 2026, 17:47 EST — After-hours
- Mattel shares were down about 25% at $15.80 after the close on Wednesday.
- The Barbie maker forecast 2026 profit below estimates after a Q4 miss and flagged heavier spending.
- Investors are weighing a $1.5 billion buyback plan against discounting, inventory and retailer order swings.
Mattel (MAT.O) shares slid about 25% to $15.80 in after-hours trade on Wednesday, after the toy maker’s outlook and holiday-quarter results rattled investors and triggered a wave of analyst resets.
The move matters because it lands at the intersection of two pressures: retailers are ordering later and pushing inventory back onto suppliers, while Mattel is trying to fund a shift toward digital games and entertainment that could weigh on near-term margins. (Reuters)
It also sets up a different tape for the next session. A drop of this size tends to pull in fast money, widen option premiums and force index and quant funds to rebalance — even as longer-only investors wait to see whether guidance is conservative or a real step down.
Late Tuesday, Mattel forecast 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.18 to $1.30, below Wall Street expectations, after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share on sales of $1.77 billion, both short of estimates. (Reuters)
Chief Executive Ynon Kreiz pointed to heavier promotions in December and softer U.S. trends. “December gross billings in the U.S. ended up growing less than expected,” the company said, using a sales metric it tracks closely during the holiday period. (Reuters)
Mattel also said it would invest about $110 million in 2026, mainly in digital games, plus about $40 million in performance marketing — spending tied to measurable results such as clicks or sales — an “investment year” stance that some analysts see delaying earnings recovery. (Reuters)
D.A. Davidson analyst Keegan Cox framed it as catch-up. “Mattel is in the early stages of an investment similar to Hasbro’s investment in gaming over seven years ago,” he said. (Reuters)
In a separate catalyst, Mattel agreed to buy NetEase’s 50% stake in Mattel163 for $159 million, valuing the mobile-games studio at $318 million, as it pushes more brands into app-based play. The deal is expected to close by the end of the first quarter. (Business Wire)
The company also unveiled a multi-year licensing tie-up with Paramount for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles products starting in 2027, adding another piece to its franchise pipeline but not an immediate fix for 2026 margins. (PR Newswire)
Mattel said it authorized a $1.5 billion share repurchase program, a shareholder-friendly lever that can help support earnings per share — but only if cash flow holds up as discounting runs through inventory. (Reuters)
There are clear risks. If U.S. demand stays promotion-driven, or if retailers keep buying “on demand” and leave suppliers holding more stock, Mattel could face further markdowns and choppier quarterly results, even with international growth. (Reuters)
For Thursday and into next week, traders will watch for further analyst downgrades or target cuts, whether the stock finds support after the slide, and any added color on buyback timing and the Mattel163 close expected by end-Q1. (Reuters)
