New York, March 4, 2026, 13:13 (EST) — Regular session
U.S. mortgage applications jumped 11% last week, with homeowners moving quickly on refinancing as rates hovered near multi-year lows, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA’s refinance index was up 14.3% for the week ending Feb. 27. The average contract rate for 30-year fixed conforming loans held steady at 6.09%. “Mortgage applications increased last week, driven by continued strength in refinance activity, as mortgage rates stayed near their lowest level since 2022,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA. 1
Timing is key here. For lenders, refinancing — exchanging an existing loan for a new one, typically to lower monthly payments — has been conspicuously absent since rates jumped in 2022 and 2023.
The bond market has taken the driver’s seat once more. Mortgage rates usually move in step with long-term Treasury yields, and lately, traders are on edge over inflation threats linked to geopolitics and a still-robust U.S. economy.
Mortgage News Daily reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate for top borrowers at 6.07% on Wednesday, slipping by six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point. Over on its dashboard, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.07%—a benchmark heavily influencing home-loan rates. 2
Treasury yields edged higher after fresh data pointed to a 3-1/2-year peak for U.S. service-sector activity in February, throwing some cold water on hopes for rapid rate cuts. The ISM’s nonmanufacturing PMI climbed to 56.1, Reuters said, suggesting demand remains solid even as investors parse the effects of the Middle East conflict and pricier energy. 3
Housing-related names finished in the red. Rocket Companies dropped 0.8% to $16.30 and UWM Holdings edged down 0.1% to $4.25. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF declined 0.7%. D.R. Horton, Lennar and PulteGroup all traded lower as well. Mortgage-backed securities, tracked by the iShares MBS ETF, barely budged.
Fed officials are cautioning that inflation data may become choppy before any improvement shows up. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari summed up the market’s concerns: “How long is this going to last? How bad is it going to get?” 4
The road ahead looks choppy. Rising energy costs keep stoking inflation concerns, which can push yields up—mortgage rates often tag along. That’s enough to stall the spring uptick in refinancing and leave potential buyers on the sidelines.
Eyes are on Thursday’s Freddie Mac weekly mortgage-rate readout, followed by Friday’s U.S. February jobs numbers. Next up, the February consumer price index hits on March 11, offering the latest inflation read. 5
