NEW YORK, March 2, 2026, 13:14 EST — Regular session in progress.
- As March trading got underway, U.S. mortgage rates hovered close to 6%.
- Stocks hovered near flat in late morning, but crude surged after new Middle East conflict headlines hit.
- All eyes shift to Friday’s U.S. jobs report, as traders hunt for clues on when rate cuts might land.
On Monday, mortgage rates stuck close to the 6% mark, with Bankrate reporting the average 30-year fixed at 6.04%, while 30-year refi rates edged up to 6.53%. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, described herself as “only cautiously optimistic” about the spring housing season, citing continued nerves among both buyers and sellers. 1
That number has weight, especially as the market lurches into the spring buying period with affordability stuck in a squeeze. Just a fraction of a percentage point can shift monthly payments, sometimes bumping a buyer into — or out of — the running.
No relief for homebuyers from the markets this day. The S&P 500 edged 0.05% lower as of 11:42 a.m. ET. The Dow dropped 0.20%, while the Nasdaq managed a 0.22% gain. Crude had surged over 8%—traders bracing for fallout if Middle East tensions hit trade routes and fuel inflation. 2
Inflation jitters were reflected in the numbers, as well. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.4 in February after January’s 52.6, but the prices paid index shot up to 70.5—marking its highest point since October 2022—even ahead of the recent oil rally, according to Reuters. 3
Rates had barely slipped through a key threshold. On Feb. 26, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.98% last week—a first sub-6% reading in over three years. Zillow’s Kara Ng flagged that a drop like this probably won’t “transform” the market. Still, Bank of America’s Matt Vernon pointed out mortgage application volume is up nearly 22% from the same week last year. 4
Zillow’s research group says borrowers pay close attention to round-number milestones in rates. The team figures falling rates over the past year have boosted the buying power of a median-income household by roughly $30,000—sometimes enough to push a different set of homes onto the radar. 5
Daily trackers are still split on the numbers, a familiar story. NerdWallet, pulling from Zillow’s data, reported the average 30-year fixed climbed six basis points to 5.87% APR. One basis point equals one-hundredth of a percent, and APR includes both the rate and lender fees. 6
Beneath 6%, things look tame for borrowers—but that could unravel fast. Oil holding up, tariffs feeding into costs, or a hotter-than-expected labor print Friday: any of these could send long yields higher again. Lenders? They can reprice in a heartbeat.
Friday, March 6, stands out as the next big one. According to a Reuters poll, February’s U.S. jobs report is forecast to show 60,000 new jobs. Investors will be watching for any signal about whether the Federal Reserve could cut rates by mid-2026 or might have to push back. 7
