NEW YORK, Feb 18, 2026, 13:19 EST — Regular session
- Borrowers jumped back in for refinancing as borrowing costs dropped during the latest weekly survey.
- Midday action saw housing-linked shares posting mixed moves.
- Fed minutes and new housing numbers are in focus as traders hunt for the next move on rates
Mortgage rates are sticking close to 6%, and signs of life emerged in the refinance market as costs slipped. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average 30-year fixed rate for conforming loans landed at 6.17% for the week ending Feb. 13, down slightly from 6.21%. Total applications grew 2.8%. Refi applications surged 7% from the previous week and soared 132% compared to a year ago. Purchase activity, however, pulled back. 1
Lenders are beginning to feel the impact of the rate shift just as investors hunt for any hint that the Federal Reserve might cut again. Focus is on the Fed’s January 16-17 minutes, set for release at 2 p.m. EST. Policymakers opted to keep the benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the “tension between employment and inflation” has eased. Citi analysts, meanwhile, say the Fed stands “prepared to lower rates further” if inflation slows. 2
Housing numbers are all over the place. December saw single-family starts climb 4.1% to 981,000 units annualized, but permits for future builds edged down 1.7% to 881,000—a clear sign that supply isn’t rebounding in any straightforward way. The government will finally release its postponed advance GDP estimate for Q4 this Friday. Residential investment? Headed for a fourth straight quarterly drop. 3
Mortgage rate trackers diverged on “today’s” numbers, as lender surveys and fee structures varied. On Wednesday, Bankrate put the average 30-year fixed at 6.19%. Its 5/1 ARM landed at 5.35%. “Affordability pressures continue to shape borrower behavior,” MBA President Bob Broeksmit told Bankrate. 4
Forbes Advisor reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 5.99%, according to Mortgage Research Center, while the 15-year fixed rate landed at 5.20%. The 30-year fixed APR, factoring in lender fees, came in at 6.02%. 5
Housing and mortgage finance stocks mostly hugged tight ranges. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ticked up roughly 0.3%. Rocket Companies added close to 1%, with UWM Holdings also inching up. Shares of mortgage insurer Radian fell about 0.5%. D.R. Horton climbed around 0.9%.
Builders aren’t feeling much better. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index dropped to 36 in February, Reuters said Tuesday, still stuck under 50—the threshold for a positive outlook. NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes pointed to “affordability challenges” among buyers, despite continued use of incentives by most builders. 6
Bonds are still driving rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a major benchmark for mortgages, hovered near 4.08% on Wednesday, ticking up just a bit from the day before, data from Trading Economics shows. 7
Mortgage rates haven’t fallen evenly—any bounce in inflation or a rise in Treasury yields could send them right back up. If the Fed signals fewer cuts, refinancing takes the first punch, and buyers hoping for relief this spring may not get much of a break on affordability.
Attention turns to the Fed minutes coming out Wednesday, with the delayed GDP numbers expected Friday. In housing, investors are watching to see if purchase applications keep dropping, even as rates hover near last year’s lows.
