Sydney, March 3, 2026, 17:00 AEDT — After-hours
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) ended Tuesday at A$47.64, up just 0.04%. The NAB share price found its footing after Monday’s steep drop, as traders returned to some rate-sensitive stocks. 1
That’s crucial right now: bank stocks have basically become the market’s proxy for the next move in Australian rates. Just a slight shift in the rate outlook can jolt valuations sharply, often well before any change appears in loan growth or bad debt figures.
Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, flagged a possible rate hike this month, telling a Sydney business summit the March meeting was “live” and noting that a supply shock from the Middle East conflict could push inflation expectations higher. According to Reuters, markets now assign about a 30% chance to a quarter-point rise on March 17 and have fully priced in a hike by May. Three-year government bond yields jumped 13 basis points to 4.313%. “We favour May as the most likely outcome for the next rate hike, but recent data flow lifts the risk of March,” said Ashwin Clarke, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 2
Wednesday brings the next local marker: the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release December-quarter national accounts at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. 3
Banks struggled on Monday, pulling back as investors reacted to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that sent oil prices shooting up. Financial stocks slid 2.6%. NAB dropped nearly 3%. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ each lost between 1.8% and 2.4%, according to Reuters. 4
Rising rates tend to boost a bank’s net interest margin—the spread between interest earned on loans and payouts on deposits. Still, a rapid tightening cycle has its drawbacks: credit demand can weaken, and loan stress picks up, especially if funding costs outpace lending rates.
NAB has filed with the ASX to list 74,180 ordinary shares, according to a disclosure, with prices tagged between A$39.99 and A$46.15 under its 2025 employee equity plans. These shares will sit in trust, locked up for a deferral period, as outlined in the filing. 5
NAB is hanging near its peak, not far from the record A$47.96 touched in February after its upbeat first-quarter earnings report. That February surge came on the back of a strong update. 6
There’s a chance an oil-fueled burst in inflation could morph into stagflation—sluggish growth paired with sticky price increases—pushing the central bank to tighten rates even as momentum fades. That scenario puts banks in a squeeze, facing both softer loan volumes and higher credit costs.
Coming up: GDP numbers hit on Wednesday, and the bond market’s move will be key. Focus then swings to the March 17 RBA meeting. Oil stays in play, with traders also ready for any fresh Middle East headlines that could sway the session.
