Sydney, June 10, 2026, 17:35 (AEST)
- NAB finished the day at A$36.33, gaining 1.03%. Shares had hit a 52-week low of A$35.48 just one session earlier.
- S&P/ASX 200 added 0.6% to finish at 8,653.30. Financial stocks rose 0.9%.
- NAB economists are tipping the RBA’s next cash-rate move will be down, not up. They’re still unsure when that might happen.
NAB shares climbed Wednesday as some buying came back into Australian banks following Tuesday’s slide. National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) settled at A$36.33, up 1.03%. The stock touched a 52-week low of A$35.48 the previous day before investors responded to changing rate bets and a bounce in the ASX.
Traders shifted focus away from any new company filing, watching the rate outlook instead. The odds of another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike are down, and bets are building that cuts could be next. That’s key for banks. Higher rates help lending margins, but they can also put the brakes on borrowing and raise the risk of bad loans.
S&P/ASX 200 ended its three-day slide, gaining 0.6% to finish at 8,653.30. Financials led, up 0.9% for their strongest session in almost two weeks. Westpac Banking advanced 2%. Two of the other “Big Four” banks were up at least 0.7%, Reuters said via Business Recorder. Business Recorder
Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, now looking for cuts to come earlier, according to Luke Winchester, portfolio manager at Merewether Capital, who spoke to Reuters. That report also mentioned the chances of an RBA rate hike in August dropping to around 35%, down from over 80% a month ago.
NAB economists changed their forecast Tuesday. Their latest RBA Watch drops the call for a 25-basis-point rate hike in August; a basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. Chief Economist Sally Auld said, “The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain.” Nab
RBA’s cash rate is the overnight rate set by the central bank. It shapes mortgage, deposit and business loan rates. The cash-rate target sits at 4.35% following a hike in May. The next policy move is set for 2:30 p.m. AEST on June 16.
Business survey data is painting a mixed picture. NAB’s May survey found confidence was up at -14 from -23, but conditions stayed flat at +3. Capacity utilisation slipped to 81.9%. NAB reported that cost and price pressures have eased some, though both remain high, with purchase costs still standing out.
Limited rally as confidence stays down. NAB economist Michael Hayes said confidence “remains very weak and in negative territory across all industries,” and Reuters reported that profitability is still under pressure. NAB, Australia’s top business lender, sees weak sentiment hitting loan demand and credit quality. Reuters
NAB shares bounced Wednesday but are still struggling. The stock closed at A$36.33, up on the day but a long way from its 52-week high of A$49.45. That’s about 26% lower, with investors still cautious about margins, impairments and the economic outlook.
NAB’s half-year numbers last month didn’t help the concern. Cash earnings for the first half came in below forecasts, Reuters said, after the bank booked a A$949 million post-tax hit from software capitalisation changes and took a A$706 million credit impairment charge. Cash earnings, which aim to show the bank’s underlying profit by excluding some items, fell short.
NAB posted cash earnings of A$3.558 billion, once the software-policy charge was left out. Revenue climbed 3.1%. Operating costs edged down. The bank is keeping its interim dividend at 85 cents a share. Net interest margin improved in the period.
Rate-cut bets can unwind fast. If inflation holds up or Middle East energy prices drive costs higher, the RBA might back off on easing. And if rates do drop because the economy sours, NAB could get slower credit growth and more loan losses, not a straight recovery.
NAB’s next move is tied to what the RBA does on June 16. If the central bank pauses and signals weaker growth, the stock could hold onto gains from Wednesday’s rally. But if the RBA sticks with a hawkish tone on inflation, traders may look again at Tuesday’s A$35.48 low.
