Sydney, March 17, 2026, 10:25 AEDT
National Australia Bank closed out Monday at A$47.06, sitting just shy of its all-time high of A$47.96 set following last month’s Q1 update. Investors now turn their attention to Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia call.
Timing is key here: money markets now put the odds of a quarter-point RBA hike this week at about 72%, following the surge in oil prices above $100 a barrel as the Middle East conflict stirs up inflation worries again. For bank stocks, it’s the expected rate move that’s holding the steering wheel in the near term.
NAB, which leads the pack among Australian business lenders, is facing scrutiny over its net interest margin — that’s the difference between income from loans and funding costs. The bank reported a first-quarter NIM of 1.80%. All of the big four banks, including NAB, pushed through February’s RBA rate hike to variable home loan customers before the month ended.
The stock stays anchored to that first-quarter snapshot. Underlying profit for NAB climbed 16% to A$2.02 billion, business banking volumes advanced 7%, while housing loans increased 5%. Chief Executive Andrew Irvine remarked the bank had “started 2026 strongly.” Reuters
NAB isn’t the only one bracing for higher rates. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ also see a hike coming in March. Belinda Allen, CBA’s head of Australian economics, said “the balance of probabilities has shifted” toward March and May hikes. Over at Deutsche Bank, chief economist Phil O’Donaghoe admitted his earlier take was “the wrong one” after the RBA’s hawkish signals. Reuters
The bank released new figures Tuesday, painting a more nuanced picture of the economy. NAB’s consumer spend tracker pointed to a 0.4% lift in household spending for February, hinting at a sturdy start to the year. Still, the bank noted the data probably doesn’t reflect the impact of February’s rate hike or the aftershocks from the Iran conflict.
But it’s hardly a straightforward bet. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser flagged arguments for and against a March move, noting a prolonged conflict might hurt growth. Meanwhile, Citi analysts singled out NAB’s common equity tier 1 ratio—an essential buffer for losses—as the “clear negative” in what was otherwise a solid quarter. Reuters
Oil prices slipped on Monday, as Brent closed at $100.21 a barrel. Even so, that’s still a jump of over 40% for the month. For NAB, the upside is firmer rate bets, though there’s vulnerability if central banks pause or if climbing fuel prices begin to drag more sharply on activity.
