London, May 4, 2026, 20:00 BST
- With the London Stock Exchange closed Monday for the Early May Bank Holiday, National Grid plc’s London-listed shares sat out the session. Over in the U.S., its New York ADR slipped in trading.
- With full-year results due May 14, investors are watching after the company warned that U.S. regulatory refunds and storm-related costs would dent underlying earnings per share by about 1 pence.
- The broader New England transmission dispute isn’t over yet. Eversource and Avangrid, among others, are still urging U.S. regulators to bump up permitted returns.
With London markets shut for a UK holiday Monday, National Grid plc’s ADRs in New York took the lead. The U.S.-listed shares slipped $1.12 to $87.36, ahead of the utility’s full-year numbers due next week.
London trading has been muted ahead of National Grid’s May 14 full-year results. The last update pointed to annual performance mostly tracking guidance, but with a net drag of about 1 pence per share on underlying EPS. That setback comes down to two things: customer refund charges linked to a March 19 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decision on New England Transmission, and higher storm costs in the U.S.
Fresh headlines were scarce on the UK regulatory wire. National Grid’s May 1 RNS confirmed it had 5.20 billion ordinary shares on the books as of April 30—of those, 223.4 million sat in treasury. That puts shares with voting rights for UK calculations at 4.98 billion.
The U.S. dispute lingers. Last week, Eversource, Avangrid, and several other New England transmission owners petitioned FERC to boost their base return on equity to 11.39%, up from 9.57%. FERC had previously slashed that rate in March, following lengthy litigation, and told the region’s transmission owners to pay back roughly $1.5 billion to ratepayers by May 20, 2027, according to Utility Dive.
National Grid’s May 14 update isn’t just another utility earnings report. Investors want details—how big and how soon will refund recovery hit, what’s the exposure to storm costs, any fresh signals in U.S. rate-case commentary, and does management still back its current earnings growth outlook?
Morningstar’s Tancrede Fulop isn’t budging. In his April 13 note, Fulop held firm on a 1,440 pence fair value and kept his narrow moat call for National Grid, saying the stock “appear undervalued” after the market set higher gilt yields against the previous guidance bump. Morningstar
Capital spending remains the headline. Back in March, National Grid laid out a five-year plan running to fiscal 2031, targeting at least £70 billion in cumulative investment. The company projects about 10% compound annual asset growth, with underlying EPS expected to climb 8% to 10% from the fiscal 2026 base. “Modern, resilient networks are fundamental to economic growth,” CEO Zoë Yujnovich said at the time. London South East
National Grid signed on to RIIO-T3, the UK’s upcoming electricity-transmission price-control rules scheduled for April 2026 through March 2031. Ofgem’s final terms set the real allowed cost of equity at 6.12% with 60% gearing—central to what the business stands to earn in regulated returns.
It’s regulation, not the product lineup, framing the competition here. National Grid, Eversource, and Avangrid are all tangled in the Northeast’s big transmission investment discussion—think power needs, grid stability, refund risks, all tugging at each other. Over in Britain, National Grid lines up against other regulated network operators, but its larger footprint and U.S. angle set it apart.
The dangers are hard to miss. Another negative U.S. regulatory ruling, unexpected storm expenses, pricier funding, or grid project holdups—all could put pressure on earnings or throw off National Grid’s £70 billion investment plan. The company has flagged multiple risk factors: regulation, weather, financing costs, network glitches, and project schedules could all push actual outcomes away from those forward-looking targets.
The next test comes soon. National Grid has slated May 14 for Yujnovich and Chief Financial Officer Andy Agg to deliver full-year 2025/26 results, with a webcast and Q&A on the docket. Investors will be watching for updates on U.S. refunds, UK returns, dividend growth, and how quickly grid spending is ramping up.
