LONDON, March 18, 2026, 16:51 GMT
National Grid shares slipped Wednesday, pressured by a downgrade from Jefferies to Hold from Buy—just days after UBS slapped the stock with a Sell on Monday. The London-listed shares changed hands at 1,325.18 pence as of 4:40 p.m. GMT, off 2.6% for the session.
Timing is key here. National Grid, earlier this month, bumped up its 2027 adjusted earnings-per-share growth forecast to between 13% and 15%. The company also signed on to RIIO-T3, Ofgem’s upcoming five-year UK transmission framework stretching from April 2026 through March 2031. Now, broker caution is setting in just as the shares had been riding high on that improved regulatory outlook.
Jefferies analyst Ahmed Farman pointed to a thin set of regulatory catalysts for National Grid through the rest of the year, and flagged the risk that rising real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates might dampen sentiment. The firm held its price target steady at 1,410 pence.
UBS took a sharper tone Monday, flagging National Grid’s 57% premium to its regulated asset base—RAB, the figure utilities use to calculate returns—as sitting close to three-decade highs. Past instances at these levels led to average drops of roughly 37% over spans ranging five to 19 months, the bank pointed out. Even so, UBS lifted its price target on the stock to 1,160 pence from 1,100 pence but cut its rating to Sell.
That’s at odds with what National Grid told investors just a few weeks ago. Earlier this month, the company attributed its boosted 2027 growth outlook to increased allowed revenue entering a fresh regulatory cycle. A filing to the London Stock Exchange showed National Grid not only extending and upgrading its five-year financial framework, but also signing off on all elements of the RIIO-T3 package.
National Grid operates electricity and gas networks across Britain and the U.S. Northeast. Jefferies is still calling it a core holding for plenty of sector investors, citing better clarity out to 2031. But the downgrade signals that clearer guidance isn’t cutting it at today’s price.
No sweeping moves across the sector. That morning, Alliance News flagged Jefferies lifting its price target on SSE and sticking with its Buy call, even as the broker downgraded National Grid. UBS, for its part, highlighted Pennon and Redeia as preferred picks among the regulated grids.
Execution risk takes center stage now. National Grid pushes ahead with its spending plans—quicker than doubters anticipate—and that premium could hold if yields cooperate. But trouble spots like affordability concerns, planning holdups, or supply chain headaches could bog things down, making UBS’s wary growth outlook seem more reasonable.
