NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 4:04 PM EST — Market closed
The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects marketed natural gas production — a measure of output sold into the market — to average a record 120.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 122.3 bcfd in 2027. (Midland Reporter-Telegram)
That matters right now because the market is coming off a violent late-January swing and is trying to settle into a late-winter pattern. Weather has been doing most of the work, but the supply backdrop is getting louder.
LNG has become the other steady lever. Liquefied natural gas export plants pull gas from the U.S. grid before it is cooled and shipped overseas, and those flows can tighten balances even when domestic heating demand fades.
On Friday, March natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.6 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $3.243 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Feb. 6, though still down about 5% on the week. LSEG put Lower 48 output at 107.8 bcfd so far in February, and meteorologists saw mostly warmer-than-normal weather through at least Feb. 28; analysts said that could wipe out a storage deficit by early March. In West Texas, Waha Hub cash prices stayed negative for a seventh straight day — the 16th time this year — as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian. (Business Recorder)
Bryce Erickson at Mercer Capital said the tape is still jumpy even if the fundamentals are improving. “Prices remain volatile, equities have struggled to find consistent footing and investor sentiment still skews cautious,” he said, pointing to demand anchored by LNG exports and power generation tied to data centers. (Midland Reporter-Telegram)
In U.S.-listed gas names, the last session was Friday: EQT rose 2.7% and Kinder Morgan gained about 2%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF was flat.
But the next move is not hard to imagine in either direction. A colder turn or fresh freeze-offs could tighten supply fast, while a warm late February paired with steady production would lean bearish — and keep pressure on constrained hubs in places like West Texas.
U.S. equity markets were shut on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday and reopen on Tuesday, putting most of the price discovery into the next session. (NASDAQ Trader)
The next clear catalyst is the federal storage update: the EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is due on Feb. 19. Traders will also watch updated weather-model runs and LNG feedgas — the gas delivered into liquefaction plants — for signs demand is slipping or holding up. (EIA)
