New York, March 4, 2026, 13:07 EST — Regular session
- April Henry Hub natural gas futures in the U.S. slipped roughly 3.4% by midday, clawing back a chunk of Tuesday’s rally.
- Near-term U.S. weather is warmer, and LNG feedgas flows have eased, pressuring prices. Still, Middle East tensions continue to keep global gas markets uneasy.
- The next hurdle: Thursday’s U.S. storage report, covering the week ended Feb. 27.
Natural gas futures in the U.S. pulled back Wednesday, retreating after Tuesday’s jump as traders zeroed in on the latest domestic weather signals and export numbers. By 12:53 p.m. ET, April gas had dropped 10.4 cents to $2.95 per mmBtu, down 3.41%. On the ETF front, BOIL tumbled 7.29%, while KOLD gained 7.21%. 1
The move is catching attention: traders have been working to bake a Middle East risk premium into a contract dominated by U.S. weather, storage, and bottleneck issues. If that premium even slightly unwinds, screens can flip in a hurry.
April gas climbed 9.4 cents to finish at $3.054 on Tuesday, after touching $3.188 earlier in the session. Still, “bearish fundamentals outweigh Middle East supply risks,” noted Heather Wine, senior risk manager at StoneX, in a daily note. She flagged unseasonably warm weather across wide areas for the next five days, plus a dip in LNG feedgas flowing earlier in the week with the Cameron LNG outage. As for Thursday’s storage report, Wine expects numbers could remain supportive; Platts projects a 125 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 27. 2
The price jolt has been felt more acutely overseas. Asia’s spot LNG benchmark for April delivery shot up 68.52% on Tuesday, landing at $25.393/mmBtu. Northwest Europe recorded its own jump, with April spot LNG climbing 57% to $15.479/mmBtu, according to Reuters, after the conflict disrupted shipments and forced a halt to Qatari output. “Front month arbs have increased significantly,” Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan said, adding those arbitrage routes are now “open to Asia” from a number of export points. 3
The gap partly explains why U.S. gas prices have been so jumpy this week; just a few LNG headlines are enough to sway sentiment, despite the fact that U.S. export capacity can’t scale up in a hurry. Still, the underlying drivers remain weather and storage.
Working gas in storage landed at 2,018 Bcf as of Feb. 20, per the latest U.S. government data—a weekly drop of 52 Bcf. Next update comes March 5. 4
The weekly natural gas storage data from the EIA is set for 10:30 a.m. Eastern every Thursday, unless holidays prompt a change, the agency’s release schedule shows. 5
Still, risks cut both ways here. If LNG feedgas demand snaps back, March turns colder, or storage withdrawals outpace forecasts, prices could rebound. On the flip side, more export hiccups or a stubbornly mild stretch would put pressure on the contract, possibly sending it sliding toward lows again.
Traders are eyeing the Middle East for signs the turmoil lingers, keeping global LNG buyers scrambling for shipments. On the other hand, chatter about de-escalation keeps trimming that premium.
The next trigger for U.S. gas comes with Thursday’s EIA storage report covering the week ended Feb. 27. After that, traders will be watching for new mid-March weather outlooks and looking for confirmation that Cameron’s outage is no longer weighing on the market.
