NEW YORK, Feb 17, 2026, 12:44 (EST) — Regular session
- U.S. natural gas futures slid nearly 6% as traders weighed warmer-leaning forecasts and firmer supply
- Morgan Stanley flagged a February pullback tied to weaker heating demand and a rebound in Lower 48 output
- Focus shifts to Thursday’s U.S. storage data and any early signs of tighter LNG-related demand
U.S. natural gas futures fell on Tuesday, pushing back toward the $3 level as traders digested milder weather outlooks and a supply rebound. The March Henry Hub contract was down 18.7 cents, or 5.77%, at $3.056 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). (Investing)
Morgan Stanley said prices “have pulled back ~29% so far in February” as weather “flipped milder,” with heating degree days — a measure of cold that tracks heating needs — running about 9% below the 10-year average. The bank pointed to “approximately 107.9 bcf/d” of Lower 48 dry gas output month-to-date and said the Haynesville rig count “is up +10 in the past month to 52,” while still expecting about “~3.8 bcf/d of LNG growth in ’26,” including an early March start for Golden Pass. (Investing)
Why it matters now is simple: the market is trying to work out whether winter demand is basically done, or just taking a breather. Around $3, hedging math changes quickly for producers, and power generators get a different fuel signal heading into the shoulder season.
EBW Analytics Group analyst Eli Rubin warned that “bearish” medium-term NYMEX gas risks are “growing into the Spring,” saying the long holiday weekend brought a “net weather demand loss” and that “Technicals point lower.” PRICE Futures Group’s Phil Flynn said the market was down because of “Spring fever,” pointing to melted snowpack and above-normal temperatures weighing on heating demand. (Rigzone)
Supply growth sits in the background as well. The Energy Information Administration’s February outlook projected U.S. marketed natural gas production averaging a record 120.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and hitting 122.3 bcfd in 2027, with most expected from the Permian, Appalachia and Haynesville. (Midland Reporter-Telegram)
But the trade can still turn. A colder shot late in February or early March, or any freeze-offs that clip production, would tighten balances fast, especially if LNG export demand stays firm.
Next up is storage. Traders will parse the EIA’s weekly U.S. natural gas storage report due Feb. 19 for a clearer read on how hard winter is still pulling on inventories. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
After that, it’s back to the weather models and day-to-day production and LNG feedgas signals — the stuff that moves this market before the numbers are even printed.
