OSLO, March 10, 2026, 19:17 CET
European natural gas prices tumbled Tuesday, with the market shedding risk premium as traders eyed a possible faster resolution to the Middle East conflict. The Dutch front-month Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract, the region’s key benchmark, slid 7.98 euros to 48.47 euros per megawatt hour by 08:52 GMT, a steep drop from Monday’s intraday peak of 69.50 euros. Over in the UK, April gas futures dropped 19.90 pence, settling at 123.63 pence per therm.
This drop isn’t trivial for Europe, where gas storage sits at less than 30% capacity and Qatar can’t ship LNG—liquefied natural gas—out of the still-blocked Strait of Hormuz. Even after Tuesday’s pullback, both Europe and Asia are scrambling for alternative cargoes.
President Donald Trump’s offhand comment that the conflict might wrap up “soon” sparked the slide. Crude and gas prices took a hit late Monday following those words, with oil extending losses after gas markets had already shut. That dragged down Tuesday’s open, according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief economist at Global Risk Management. Baird Maritime / Work Boat World
Traders weren’t calling it quits on the squeeze just yet. “Those volumes will be competed for tooth and nail,” said Ben Samuel, energy markets analyst at Marex, referring to LNG cargoes that would typically land in Europe around March and April as Asian demand tapers off. According to Samuel, Europe is looking at a shortfall of 11 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas this summer if it wants storage levels to match last year’s late September peak. Baird Maritime / Work Boat World
The rush is unmistakable. India announced Tuesday it’s securing additional LNG from sources beyond the Middle East. Over in Spain, February LNG imports jumped nearly 20% versus last year, with U.S. shipments accounting for 33.8% of the total, according to numbers from Spanish grid operator Enagas.
U.S. exporters remain among the limited outlets for excess supply. Freeport LNG in Texas was working its way back to full capacity following a weekend disruption. Venture Global, meanwhile, reassured Plaquemines Phase 1 buyers it was sticking with an Oct. 31 start for contracted shipments, even as global gas prices surged.
But there are limits to how much wiggle room shippers actually have. Kpler figures put 68% of U.S. LNG exports headed for Europe in 2025, while the volume destined for Asia jumped nearly 20% in the first quarter versus the prior year. Elsewhere, Australia, Russia, Malaysia and Nigeria have reportedly been tweaking their shipping calendars as buyers scramble for available supply.
The biggest worry: Tuesday’s dip might not last. Prolonged fighting or a continued bottleneck in Hormuz could send gas prices spiking again; energy supply chains, once disrupted, “won’t be swift” to restart, Wood Mackenzie chairman Simon Flowers noted. Even if the conflict simmers down, a quick fix isn’t likely. Reuters
