New York, February 17, 2026, 16:42 EST — Trading in the after-hours session.
- March U.S. natural gas futures dropped 21.2 cents, finishing the day at $3.031 per mmBtu
- Prices slid to their lowest in about four months, pressured by heavy supply and warmer weather outlooks in the East.
- Traders are now eyeing Thursday’s U.S. storage report, with late-February weather updates also drawing attention.
U.S. natural gas futures dropped hard on Tuesday, hitting a level not seen in about four months. Traders are looking at mild temperatures and robust supply. March’s contract wrapped up at $3.031 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down 21.2 cents.
This shift is key: the market’s no longer stuck on “winter shock” mode, it’s back to tracking the weather, day in, day out. If outlooks flip warmer across the biggest U.S. population centers, heating demand can nosedive—prices tend to follow, sometimes in minutes.
The timing coincides with traders shifting focus beyond the core winter stretch, eyeing storage levels. The key dynamic: gas left underground versus remaining cold ahead. That equation usually shapes the mood heading into March.
NatGasWeather flagged a stretch of unusually warm weather ahead for much of the eastern and central U.S., likely holding national demand “very light” despite the West hanging onto colder conditions. The firm pointed out the latest U.S. storage data showed a 249 Bcf pull for the week ended Feb. 6, and said storage remains below both last year and the five-year norm. NatGasWeather
Supply remained the key focus. BloombergNEF pegged Lower 48 dry gas production Tuesday at 114.4 billion cubic feet per day, versus demand at 86.2 bcfd. LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals landed at 20.0 bcfd, according to Barchart. Commodity Weather Group, meanwhile, saw above-normal temperatures sticking around the eastern half of the country through Feb. 21.
Funds tied to natural gas tracked the fuel’s slide. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) dropped roughly 4.3%. BOIL, a leveraged bet, shed about 7.9%. On the flip side, KOLD, which moves inversely, climbed 7.2%, according to Barchart data.
In its February Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration reported that January’s cold snap forced well freeze-offs, knocking production lower. By early February, though, most output had returned. The EIA projects U.S. dry natural gas production will average around 110 billion cubic feet per day for this year, rising above 111 bcfd next year.
Earlier this month, EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey pointed to the winter price surge, saying it’s likely to push up drilling and output as the year goes on, giving inventories a boost. “Ultimately, this will result in lower natural gas prices next year than we had forecast,” Abbey said. U.S. Energy Information Administration
The downside isn’t exactly straightforward. If colder weather hits in late February, or another round of freeze-offs strikes, supply could tighten in a hurry and spark sharp short-covering rallies — particularly if LNG feedgas demand holds steady.
The next data point arrives Feb. 19, when the EIA is set to publish its weekly natural gas storage numbers at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, as per the usual Thursday timetable. Traders aren’t likely to ignore the daily weather models either, scanning for any hint the current warm streak might snap before month-end.
