LONDON, June 27, 2026, 18:05 BST
- NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) ended Friday at 656.40p, down 0.7% on the day but up 2.9% for the week, ahead of the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) weekly gain of 1.4%.
- Berenberg analyst Michael Christodoulou started NatWest with a buy rating and an 860p target, leaving about 31% upside from Friday’s close.
- A High Court ruling in a case brought by NatWest and other banks cut one route for old credit complaints at the Financial Ombudsman Service.
NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) ended Friday at 656.40 pence, down 4.60p on the day, after trading between 646.00p and 661.80p. The stock still gained 2.9% on the week from the prior Friday’s 637.80p close, beating the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX), which rose 1.4% over the same span.
The useful detail for investors is where the buying came from. Monday accounted for 42.2 million shares, about 35% of NatWest’s 118.9 million shares traded across the week. The stock jumped 3.95% that day to 663.00p, then gave back some ground but kept most of the weekly gain.
That front-loaded move now sits against a bigger valuation call. Berenberg analyst Michael Christodoulou started NatWest with a buy rating and an 860p price target. At Friday’s close, that target implies about £16.2 billion more equity value, using the reported market value and share count.
Berenberg said NatWest’s profitability “remains underappreciated by the market” and cited a roughly 20% return on tangible equity and a discount to European banks. It also named NatWest its top pick among UK banks in the note, while putting Barclays PLC (LON:BARC) on buy and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON:LLOY) on hold. Investing
The target is not just a recovery call. NatWest’s Friday close was 6.9% below its 52-week high of 705.40p, but Berenberg’s 860p target stands about 22% above that high. The shares trade on a 9.5 times P/E ratio and a 4.9% dividend yield, with market capitalisation at £52.25 billion.
The bank’s own numbers give the bull case its base. NatWest said first-quarter income excluding notable items was £4.2 billion, operating profit was £2.0 billion and RoTE was 18.2%. Chief Executive Paul Thwaite said the bank had “started the year with positive momentum,” but also said “market conditions are uncertain.” NatWest Group Investors
NatWest also lifted its 2026 income outlook in May, saying it now expected income excluding notable items at the top end of its previous £17.2 billion to £17.6 billion range. The guidance excludes the expected impact of the Evelyn Partners acquisition.
A court ruling gave the week another stock-specific input. The High Court case, dated June 24, named National Westminster Bank PLC, Barclays Bank UK PLC, Vanquis Bank Ltd and Santander UK PLC against the Financial Ombudsman Service. Fountain Court Chambers said the court upheld the banks’ judicial review challenge over FOS time-bar decisions tied to old credit-card and overdraft complaints.
That matters for NatWest because the group is heavily tied to the UK cycle. AJ Bell says NatWest derives around 90% of total income from the UK, making domestic rates, UK credit quality and UK complaint costs more important than global banking trends.
The next scheduled company event is NatWest’s half-year results on July 31. Before that, the stock has to hold a gain built on Monday’s volume spike, the Berenberg target and a legal ruling that narrowed one complaints risk.
