LONDON, March 16, 2026, 13:04 GMT
NatWest climbed roughly 1.3% to 572.3 pence in London on Monday, bouncing back after last week’s drop. Traders responded to a fresh share buyback filing and looked ahead to the Bank of England’s call expected this week. The stock started the session at 567.4p, up from Friday’s close at 565.2p, market data show. 1
This is a big deal for NatWest, right in the thick of shifting UK rate bets. Reuters’ latest poll shows most economists don’t see the Bank of England moving Bank Rate off 3.75% this Thursday. Dani Stoilova at BNP Paribas Markets 360 calls the odds of another cut “narrower and narrower by the day.” Paul Dales from Capital Economics figures the central bank will just “play for time.” That scenario works for lenders like NatWest: stable rates help protect net interest income—the difference between what banks collect from loans and shell out on deposits—even as economic weakness eats into demand and credit quality. 2
NatWest managed to rebound even as the sector struggled. According to Reuters, European bank stocks slipped 0.6% on Monday. London’s wider market didn’t escape the drag from financials either, with investors uneasy over pricier oil and potential growth headwinds. 3
NatWest flagged its latest move for investors in a March 13 filing. Between March 9 and 13, the bank repurchased 3,759,146 shares at prices between 559.2p and 591.6p, with plans to cancel the lot. That will drop shares in issue, excluding treasury stock, to just under 8.0 billion. 4
NatWest’s buyback is part of a larger capital return effort. Just last month, the bank set out a 750 million pound buyback planned for 2026, after it posted 2025 pretax profit of 7.7 billion pounds and bumped its 2028 return-on-tangible-equity goal to above 18%—a benchmark many banks use to measure profit against shareholder capital. “We are raising our ambition and sharpening our strategic focus,” Chief Executive Paul Thwaite said. 5
Monday’s bounce hasn’t closed the gap for NatWest. As of March 13, FTSE Russell data had the stock down 13.3% so far this year. That’s a steeper slide than Lloyds Banking Group, which dropped 4.1%, but Barclays fared worse, tumbling 18.8%. Hargreaves Lansdown figures show NatWest’s 52-week high sits at 705.4p. 6
Two immediate calendar points land soon. NatWest’s Thwaite is scheduled for remarks at Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference on Tuesday. Separately, annual results indicate the shares turn ex-dividend on March 19, lining up a 23 pence final payout—pending shareholder approval, the payment arrives May 5. 7
Still, the story isn’t without its downside. Reuters noted UK consumer sentiment dropped in March, hitting the weakest level since January 2025 as households grew anxious about economic fallout from the Iran war. A sharper squeeze could flip the script: while higher rates have boosted bank margins, they could just as easily drag on lending and push up bad-loan charges. 8
