‘Strange’ 2025 Hurricane Season Ends With No U.S. Landfalls as NOAA Debuts New Space‑Weather Sentinel

The Atlantic is eerily quiet this week. With just five days to go until the official end of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, there are no tropical cyclones anywhere in the basin, according to the National Hurricane Center. ^[1]

At the same time, 1.6 million kilometers sunward, a brand‑new NOAA satellite has started streaming real‑time space‑weather data, promising earlier warnings of solar storms that can disrupt power grids, GPS and aviation. ^[2]

Together, these two storylines — a “screwball” hurricane season that spared the U.S. coastline and a new sentinel watching the Sun — capture how Earth’s weather and space weather are both entering a new era of extremes and advanced forecasting.

Key points

2025 Atlantic hurricane season in numbers: 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes; 3 of those reached Category 5 — the second‑highest number of Cat‑5s ever recorded in a single Atlantic season. ^[3]
Zero U.S. hurricane landfalls: For the first time in a decade, no hurricane made landfall on the U.S. mainland. Only Tropical Storm Chantal came ashore, in South Carolina. ^[4]
Caribbean hit hard: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica and parts of Cuba and Haiti, with peak winds around 185 mph and economic losses estimated near $50 billion. ^[5]
A “strange” season: Researchers highlight long, quiet stretches around the climatological peak and an unusually high share of hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms, all against a backdrop of record‑warm Atlantic waters. ^[6]
New space‑weather satellite: NOAA’s Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 (SWFO‑L1) mission just delivered its first science data from the Suprathermal Ion Sensor (STIS), an instrument designed to give earlier warning of dangerous solar energetic particles. ^[7]

A hurricane season that broke the rules

Fewer storms, but more monsters

By the traditional metrics, 2025 looks like a near‑normal Atlantic season:

13 named storms
5 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) ^[8]

That’s slightly below the 1991–2020 average for storm and hurricane counts — yet the power of the storms that did form was above average. The season’s accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure that combines storm strength and duration, finished above the 30‑year mean, thanks largely to a handful of very intense hurricanes. ^[9]

Three of the five hurricanes — Erin, Humberto and Melissa — reached Category 5 intensity, a feat matched only by the legendary 2005 season in terms of Cat‑5 counts. ^[10] Preliminary stats from NOAA and independent researchers show 4 of 5 hurricanes became major, an unusually high ratio compared with past decades. ^[11]

In other words: there were fewer hurricanes than forecasters expected — but when storms did form, they tended to become beasts.

That stands in contrast to NOAA’s preseason outlook, which called for 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes and warned of a 60% chance of an above‑normal season, driven by warm Atlantic waters and a favorable La Niña‑like pattern. ^[12]

A three‑week “hole” in the heart of hurricane season

Perhaps the weirdest feature of 2025 was a multi‑week lull in late August and early September — typically the ferocious heart of the season.

Analyses cited by NBC News and hurricane researchers note that from roughly August 24 to September 16, no significant cyclones were active in the Atlantic, the first such gap in the peak period since the early 1990s. ^[13]

Then, in October, the atmosphere “flipped the switch” again, allowing multiple storms to ramp up rapidly over record‑warm waters — culminating in Hurricane Melissa.

Houston and the U.S. mainland dodge a decade‑rare bullet

No U.S. hurricane landfalls — but not “no impact”

For communities from Texas to the Carolinas, the headline is simple but extraordinary:

2025 is on track to become the first Atlantic season in 10 years without a single U.S. hurricane landfall. ^[14]

An Axios analysis notes that this is welcome news in hurricane‑prone Houston and along the Gulf Coast, where many communities are still rebuilding from recent storms like Beryl and Helene. ^[15]

But “no landfalls” doesn’t mean “no damage”:

Tropical Storm Chantal was the only named storm to hit the U.S., coming ashore near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, in early July with 60‑mph winds. The storm caused widespread flooding in parts of the Carolinas and was blamed for at least six deaths. ^[16]
Powerful offshore hurricanes, including Erin, generated huge swells and intense beach erosion along portions of the East Coast. In North Carolina’s Outer Banks, waves helped undermine homes that eventually collapsed into the surf. ^[17]

AccuWeather estimates that total damage and economic losses linked to Atlantic tropical systems in 2025 reached $55–61 billion — far lower than last year’s staggering $457–506 billion, but still a major hit. ^[18]

So the U.S. got lucky on landfalls, not exempt from costs.

“Unique atmospheric conditions” — and a lot of luck

Why did so many powerful storms miss the mainland?

Meteorologists point to a blend of steering currents, timely cold fronts and sheer chance:

A series of early autumn fronts helped nudge storms away from the East Coast or weaken them before they reached land. ^[19]
A rare Fujiwhara interaction between Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto helped pull Imelda — once aimed at the Southeast U.S. — farther out to sea, likely preventing a major flood disaster. ^[20]

As one AccuWeather meteorologist put it, the U.S. benefited from a “combination of unique atmospheric conditions… and a lot of luck” to escape a hurricane landfall this year. ^[21]

For Houston specifically, Axios notes that this calm year comes against a backdrop of broader concern about FEMA leadership and disaster readiness, with the agency in transition heading into the 2026 season. ^[22]

Hurricane Melissa: The record‑setting storm that defined 2025

While the U.S. mainland was spared, the Caribbean was not.

A historic Category 5 landfall in Jamaica

Late in October, Hurricane Melissa roared through the Caribbean and into history:

Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over extremely warm Caribbean waters. ^[23]
At landfall in Jamaica on October 28, the storm’s maximum sustained winds were around 185 mph, with a central pressure near 892 millibars — ranking it among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded and the strongest storm to hit Jamaica in the historical record. ^[24]
Preliminary estimates place economic losses from Melissa at $48–52 billion, with at least 45 confirmed deaths and the real toll expected to rise as search and recovery continues across Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti. ^[25]

Researchers and forecasters warn that Melissa is a preview of the kind of rapidly intensifying, high‑end hurricanes that are becoming more likely as the Atlantic warms.

Rapid intensification and warm oceans

NOAA and independent analyses link Melissa’s ferocity to exceptionally high ocean heat content:

More than 80% of the tropical Atlantic saw above‑normal ocean heat this year, with nearly 40% of the basin in the top 10% of historical values — a level not seen before 2022. ^[26]
In those hot regions, storms like Melissa and Erin were able to jump from tropical storms to major hurricanes in less than two days. ^[27]

For coastal communities across the Caribbean, the lesson was painfully clear: you don’t need a long list of storms to have a devastating season — you just need one in the wrong place.

Why experts call 2025’s hurricane season “strange”

In coverage by NBC News and other outlets, researchers have used words like “screwball” and “strange” to describe 2025. ^[28]

Several features stand out:

A near‑normal storm count with above‑normal total energy
– Fewer storms than forecast, yet ACE and the number of major hurricanes came in above average. ^[29]
Unusual timing
– A long quiet stretch around the peak in early September, bookended by intense activity earlier and later in the season. ^[30]
Three Category 5 hurricanes without a U.S. landfall
– A combination of high‑end storms and repeated near‑misses, which is rare in the historical record. ^[31]
Forecast busts and surprises
– Early‑season predictions correctly anticipated a high‑risk environment, but the actual number and placement of storms deviated from expectations, highlighting lingering uncertainty in long‑range outlooks. ^[32]

All of this unfolded as La Niña and long‑term ocean warming interacted in complex ways. In some parts of the Atlantic, the upper atmosphere was also unusually warm, which may have reduced the “potential intensity” of storms even as sea‑surface temperatures soared, helping explain why fewer storms formed over the open tropical Atlantic while the Caribbean remained primed for monsters like Melissa. ^[33]

AI steps into the hurricane‑forecast spotlight

The 2025 season was also a test bed for AI‑powered hurricane models, especially Google DeepMind’s experimental tropical cyclone system, rolled out via the company’s Weather Lab this summer. ^[34]

Early evaluations by university researchers and private meteorologists show that:

The DeepMind model consistently beat traditional numerical models on track forecasts for all 13 named storms. ^[35]
It performed competitive or better on intensity forecasts, an area where standard models have long struggled. ^[36]
For Hurricane Melissa specifically, AI guidance accurately highlighted the risk of rapid intensification and extreme peak winds well before landfall, helping forecasters raise alarms earlier. ^[37]

The National Hurricane Center’s 2025 Verification Report Preview notes that overall forecast skill remained strong and that AI‑based tools are now a regular part of the guidance suite provided to human forecasters. ^[38]

The big takeaway: AI didn’t replace human forecasters — it gave them sharper tools.

Above our heads: NOAA’s new space‑weather sentry comes online

While Atlantic storms wind down, another kind of storm is front‑of‑mind for NOAA: space weather.

What is SWFO‑L1?

On September 24, 2025, NASA and NOAA launched the Space Weather Follow On – Lagrange 1 (SWFO‑L1) observatory as a rideshare passenger on a SpaceX Falcon 9, alongside NASA’s IMAP mission. ^[39]

The spacecraft is headed to the Sun–Earth L1 point, about 1.6 million kilometers from Earth, where it will maintain a continuous view of the Sun and the solar wind flowing toward our planet. ^[40]

SWFO‑L1 carries a suite of instruments, including:

STIS (Suprathermal Ion Sensor) – measures fast‑moving ions and electrons in the solar wind. ^[41]
A Solar Wind Instrument Suite and magnetometer to track the speed, density and magnetic field of the solar wind. ^[42]
A compact coronagraph to monitor coronal mass ejections (CMEs) leaving the Sun. ^[43]

First data from STIS — and why it matters

Today (November 25), NOAA announced that STIS has begun returning science data, marking a key milestone in the mission’s commissioning. ^[44]

Key details from NOAA’s release:

STIS started sending particle measurements back to Earth on September 30, 2025, just days after launch. ^[45]
The instrument focuses on “suprathermal” particles — those that travel faster than the bulk of the solar wind — which can act as early indicators of more dangerous solar energetic particles (SEPs). ^[46]
During a strong CME on October 21–23, STIS detected a surge of suprathermal electrons and ions hours before higher‑energy SEPs were recorded by NOAA’s GOES‑18 satellite near Earth. That lead time can be crucial for airlines, satellite operators and power‑grid managers. ^[47]

When SWFO‑L1 reaches the L1 region in mid‑January 2026, it will be renamed SOLAR‑1 (Space weather Observations at L1 to Advance Readiness – 1). After additional testing, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) plans to start using its data in operational space‑weather watches and warnings by April 2026. ^[48]

In short, 2025 is ending with a new “hurricane satellite” for the Sun.

What this all means for risk — on Earth and in orbit

Don’t let a quiet coastline fool you

NOAA, AccuWeather and independent experts are united on one point:

A year without U.S. hurricane landfalls is not a reason to relax — it’s a reason to prepare while you have breathing room. ^[49]

The combination of fewer storms but more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, super‑charged by warm oceans, is consistent with what many climate studies project for a warming world: possibly fewer storms overall, but a higher share of high‑end events. ^[50]

Meanwhile, the record‑warm Atlantic and stressed insurance markets suggest that when the next Helene‑ or Melissa‑class storm does strike a major U.S. city, the costs could be enormous. ^[51]

Space weather joins the risk landscape

At the same time, modern society is more exposed than ever to solar storms:

Power grids, GPS, aviation and internet infrastructure all depend on systems vulnerable to extreme space‑weather events. ^[52]
With SOLAR‑1 / SWFO‑L1, NOAA aims to provide longer lead times and more accurate warnings of geomagnetic storms and SEP events, much as geostationary and polar‑orbiting satellites revolutionized hurricane forecasting on Earth. ^[53]

In that sense, the same themes run through both the hurricane and space‑weather stories of 2025:

Extremes are becoming more intense and more complex.
Our forecasting tools are rapidly improving, thanks to AI and new observatories.
The challenge now is to turn better forecasts into better decisions — strengthening infrastructure, refining emergency plans and ensuring that warnings reach the people who need them most.

Looking ahead to 2026

As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and the odds of a late‑season surprise are low. ^[54]

But the underlying drivers — warm oceans, rising seas and an increasingly space‑dependent civilization — aren’t going away.

In 2026, look for:

New seasonal forecasts that once again emphasize above‑normal hurricane risk if Atlantic heat remains elevated. ^[55]
Further integration of AI hurricane models into operational forecasting. ^[56]
SOLAR‑1 coming fully online, giving humanity a sharper eye on storms from the Sun. ^[57]

For now, though, November 25, 2025, sits at a remarkable crossroads: a quiet Atlantic coast, a battered Caribbean and a new NOAA sentinel watching the solar wind, all underscoring that in an age of intertwined Earth and space hazards, forecast skill and preparedness matter more than ever.

Sailing drone captures unbelievable video of ocean from inside a hurricane

Watch this video on YouTube.

References