Apple has just pulled off something that looked almost impossible a few months ago: it turned a sluggish Singles’ Day smartphone season in China into growth almost entirely on its own — and, in the process, strengthened the case for an iPhone 17 “super‑cycle” that could power a strong FY 2026. [1]
- Apple drove all the smartphone growth in China’s Singles’ Day 2025 festival. iPhone 17 models made up around 26% of all smartphones sold during the month‑long event. [2]
- Without Apple, the market would have shrunk. Overall Singles’ Day smartphone sales rose about 3% year‑on‑year, but would have fallen around 5% if Apple were excluded. [3]
- Apple’s China comeback started in October. In October alone, iPhones grabbed 25% of China’s smartphone market, with sales up 37% year‑on‑year on the back of the iPhone 17 launch. [4]
- Global rankings are shifting. Counterpoint Research now expects Apple to ship roughly 243 million iPhones in 2025, slightly ahead of Samsung’s 235 million, which would make Apple the world’s top smartphone seller for the first time in about 14 years. [5]
- Analysts see a strong FY 2026. A recent Seeking Alpha analysis argues that robust iPhone 17 demand — especially among Gen Z — plus more premium features in base models position Apple for solid FY 2026 revenue and earnings growth, though valuation is a risk. [6]
- Apple stock is near record highs. As of the early close on November 28, Apple shares traded around $278.85, just under a fresh intraday record near $280, and roughly 13% higher year‑to‑date, helped by the iPhone 17 and bullish guidance for the December quarter. TS2 Tech+1
Apple turned a weak Singles’ Day into rare smartphone growth
China’s Singles’ Day — also known as “Double 11” — is the world’s biggest online shopping festival. This year’s event stretched over more than a month and generated an estimated 1.70 trillion yuan (about $240 billion) in total sales across platforms, up from 1.44 trillion yuan last year. Yet, despite that headline growth, consumer excitement was muted, weighed down by China’s prolonged property slump and worries about income security. [7]
In smartphones, the picture looked even bleaker — until you add Apple.
Data from Counterpoint Research, cited by Reuters and multiple market outlets, show that: [8]
- iPhones accounted for around 26% of all smartphones sold during the Singles’ Day period.
- Total smartphone sales rose about 3% year‑on‑year.
- Excluding Apple, smartphone sales would have fallen around 5%.
In other words, Apple wasn’t just a participant; it was the entire growth driver of China’s Singles’ Day smartphone market in 2025.
Commentary from AASTOCKS summarizing the Counterpoint data reaches the same conclusion: a modest overall gain hides a 5% drop for everyone else, underscoring just how dependent the market’s growth was on iPhone 17 demand. [9]
Rivals stumble as iPhone 17 surges
The Singles’ Day numbers also show how dramatically the competitive landscape shifted:
- Huawei saw the steepest decline among major brands, with its market share sliding to around 13%, down from roughly 17% a year earlier. One key reason: its flagship Mate 80 only launched late in November, missing most of the Singles’ Day window. [10]
- Xiaomi held the second‑largest share at about 17%, but its sales still fell year‑on‑year because its Xiaomi 17 series had launched earlier in the year, so the festival did not give it the same boost. [11]
Daily Tech News Show and other tech outlets have highlighted that Apple was effectively the only major smartphone brand to post growth during Singles’ Day — a rare feat in a cautious spending environment. [12]
The China comeback: October’s record sets the stage
Singles’ Day did not happen in a vacuum. Apple’s resurgence in China was already visible in October, the first full month of iPhone 17 availability.
According to Counterpoint data reported by Reuters and MacRumors: [13]
- Apple’s iPhones captured about 25% of China’s smartphone market in October — roughly one in every four phones sold.
- iPhone sales in China jumped 37% year‑on‑year that month.
- The iPhone 17 lineup — including the standard, Pro and Pro Max — saw mid‑ to high double‑digit percentage growth, led by the base iPhone 17.
- New iPhone models accounted for more than 80% of Apple’s unit sales in China in October.
- China’s overall smartphone sell‑through rose about 8% year‑on‑year, with Apple front‑and‑center in that recovery.
That performance already had analysts calling this the strongest start to a December quarter ever for Apple in China. [14] Singles’ Day then reinforced the trend: even when other brands lost steam, the iPhone 17 kept pulling the market up.
iPhone 17 as the catalyst for a new “super‑cycle”
Outside China, industry forecasts point to a broader iPhone 17 boom.
Counterpoint Research now predicts that in 2025: [15]
- Apple will ship around 243 million smartphones.
- Samsung will ship about 235 million.
- That would give Apple roughly 19.4% global market share, narrowly ahead of Samsung’s projected ~18.7%.
The Verge, citing this forecast, notes that this would be the first time in about 14 years that Apple outsells Samsung on an annual basis in phone shipments — a milestone that several financial outlets from Fox Business to CNBC have also spotlighted. [16]
The same research indicates that:
- iPhone 17 sales are up roughly 12% in their first four weeks compared with the iPhone 16 series.
- Tariffs and macro uncertainty have had a smaller‑than‑expected impact on demand. [17]
Chinese‑language tech media and mainland‑focused outlets report that activations of the iPhone 17 series in China alone had already surpassed 8 million units in early November, with total sales expected to cross 10 million units on the mainland when the Double 11 promos are fully tallied. [18]
All of this is why many analysts are now comfortable talking about an “iPhone 17 super‑cycle”: a multi‑quarter wave of upgrades driven by customers coming off older devices bought during the COVID‑era boom and enticed by more meaningful changes in the new lineup. [19]
How “demand pull” today could shape Apple’s FY 2026
A widely cited Seeking Alpha note titled “Apple: Demand Pull For iPhone 17 Augurs A Strong FY 2026” argues that what we’re seeing now is not just a good launch, but a front‑loaded demand pull that sets up 2026 to be particularly strong. [20]
Based on summaries of that analysis and related coverage: [21]
- Gen Z buyers are a key driver. Younger consumers are disproportionately attracted to the iPhone 17, especially in markets where installment plans or trade‑in schemes make premium devices more accessible.
- Premium features are moving down the line‑up. Apple has been steadily adding higher‑end camera systems, better sensors and more storage to its base models, narrowing the practical gap with Pro models and making the entry iPhone 17 more compelling at roughly last year’s price.
- Average selling prices (ASPs) can still rise. Even when headline prices stay similar, a tilt toward models with more storage and more Pro variants raises ASPs — good for margins.
- Services benefit from the hardware wave. Each new iPhone sold, particularly in China where Apple’s ecosystem is still expanding, feeds recurring revenue from the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other services.
The note’s bottom line: if this iPhone 17 demand holds, Apple could see meaningful top‑line and earnings growth in FY 2026, but investors still need to watch valuation carefully after such a strong run in the share price. [22]
Apple stock today: record highs, rare layoffs and a new crown
On November 29, 2025, Apple ends the week trading just below record levels. A recap of the latest market data and commentary shows: TS2 Tech+2StockAnalysis+2
- Share price: AAPL closed at about $278.85 on November 28, up roughly 0.47% on the day and just under its all‑time intraday high near $280.38 set earlier in the week.
- Performance: The stock is up a bit over 13% year‑to‑date in 2025, even as some analysts argue much of the iPhone 17 optimism is already reflected in the price.
- Guidance: CEO Tim Cook has reportedly told investors to expect Apple’s “best ever” December quarter, a view that aligns with Counterpoint’s China data and strong early iPhone 17 numbers. [23]
- Smartphone crown: Multiple outlets summarizing Counterpoint’s forecasts now describe Apple as on track to overtake Samsung in 2025 smartphone shipments and potentially hold that lead for several years. [24]
At the same time, today’s coverage highlights that Apple is not operating in a risk‑free bubble:
- Rare layoffs: Apple has reportedly cut dozens of roles in its sales organization, a notable move for a company that typically avoids visible layoffs. The restructuring is said to focus on refocusing around enterprise, education and government clients. TS2 Tech
- Regulatory and legal overhangs: Recent Reuters and CNBC reports note that Apple is contesting a new Indian antitrust penalty framework that could theoretically expose it to fines of up to $38 billion, while also navigating EU Digital Markets Act obligations around services like Maps and Ads. [25]
- Chip strategy shifts: Separate reporting from Seeking Alpha and others suggests that Intel’s chances of winning future Mac chip manufacturing work from Apple have “improved significantly,” hinting at possible changes in Apple’s long‑term silicon supply chain by around 2027. [26]
For investors, all of this paints a picture of a company that is firing on most commercial cylinders — especially in iPhones — while simultaneously being pushed to adjust its structure, supply chain and legal strategy.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.)
What could derail the iPhone 17 story?
Even with the latest Singles’ Day triumph and bullish 2026 projections, several risks could slow Apple’s momentum:
- China’s fragile consumer confidence
The same Counterpoint and Reuters data that highlight Apple’s strength also underscore a weak overall spending environment in China, driven by a long property downturn and income uncertainty. If the broader economy deteriorates further, even Apple’s premium positioning could face pressure. [27] - Rising competition in the premium tier
Huawei’s Mate 80 missed most of the Singles’ Day window, but it is now in the market and could chip away at premium share in early 2026, especially if nationalist buying trends intensify. Xiaomi and other Chinese brands are also pushing higher‑end models globally. [28] - Regulatory and legal uncertainty
From the potential multi‑billion‑dollar antitrust exposure in India to ongoing EU investigations and U.S. legal challenges, regulators could constrain parts of Apple’s ecosystem — app stores, payments or default apps — in ways that affect long‑term profitability. [29] - Valuation and expectations
With the stock near record highs and many analysts already baking in an iPhone super‑cycle and strong FY 2026, Apple will need to keep beating expectations to justify its current multiple. Any stumble in China, delays in AI features, or weaker‑than‑hoped upgrades could trigger volatility. [30]
The bottom line
For November 29, 2025, the story around Apple is unusually clear:
- In China, the iPhone 17 didn’t just perform well — it single‑handedly rescued Singles’ Day smartphone sales from contraction, while rivals stumbled. [31]
- Globally, the same momentum is pushing Apple toward overtaking Samsung as the world’s top smartphone maker for the first time in more than a decade. [32]
- On Wall Street, that strength is feeding into expectations of a robust FY 2026, backed by a possible multi‑year iPhone 17 super‑cycle — but also raising questions about how much upside is left after a powerful run‑up in the stock. [33]
For now, the data out of China’s Double 11 and the latest analyst commentary all point in the same direction: the iPhone 17 is doing exactly what Apple needed it to do — and then some.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.aastocks.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.theverge.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.aastocks.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tommerritt.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.macrumors.com, 15. www.theverge.com, 16. www.theverge.com, 17. www.theverge.com, 18. eu.36kr.com, 19. eu.36kr.com, 20. seekingalpha.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. seekingalpha.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. seekingalpha.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.theverge.com, 33. seekingalpha.com
