Apple iPhone 17 Drives Record 2025 Shipments as IDC Warns of Smartphone Slowdown in 2026

Published: December 4, 2025

Apple’s iPhone 17 is turning what was supposed to be a sluggish year for smartphones into a record-breaking one — at least for Apple. At the same time, fresh data from research firm IDC shows storm clouds forming over the broader market in 2026, as component shortages and rising memory costs push prices higher and unit sales lower. ^[1]

The new IDC forecast, highlighted by outlets such as CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia and Business Insider, paints a “two-speed” smartphone world: Apple racing ahead on the back of booming iPhone 17 demand, while much of the rest of the industry braces for a tougher year ahead. ^[2]

IDC Lifts 2025 Smartphone Outlook on iPhone 17 Strength

In its latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, IDC upgraded its 2025 forecast for global smartphone shipments to 1.5% growth, up from a previous estimate of 1%. That translates to roughly 1.24–1.25 billion smartphones shipped worldwide this year. ^[3]

Crucially, that modest growth is being driven disproportionately by Apple:

IDC now expects Apple to ship just over 247 million iPhones in 2025, a 6.1% year‑over‑year increase, setting a new all‑time record for the company’s iPhone unit shipments. ^[4]
Those shipments are expected to generate more than $261 billion in iPhone revenue this year, up about 7.2% compared with 2024 — also a record. ^[5]

IDC credits the “phenomenal” success of the iPhone 17 series for the improved outlook, especially over the crucial holiday quarter. ^[6]

China Becomes Ground Zero for Apple’s Turnaround

Nowhere is the iPhone 17 story more dramatic than in China, Apple’s single largest smartphone market.

According to IDC data cited by Business Insider and Reuters:

Apple’s share of the Chinese smartphone market topped 20% in October and November, putting the company “miles ahead” of local rivals on recent monthly sales. ^[7]
Earlier this year, IDC had projected a 1% decline in overall smartphone shipments in China for 2025. Thanks to iPhone 17 momentum, that has now been revised to 3% growth — a four‑point swing in less than a year. ^[8]
Apple had previously suffered a roughly 9% drop in iPhone shipments in China and was the only major brand losing share in the first quarter of 2025. The latest numbers suggest that slump has not just ended but reversed sharply. ^[9]

This turnaround is especially notable given intense competition from Chinese manufacturers like Huawei and Xiaomi, which have been aggressively pushing premium models. Yet IDC’s latest figures show Apple regaining the top spot during the iPhone 17 launch window. ^[10]

What Makes the iPhone 17 So Important?

The iPhone 17 lineup, launched worldwide on September 19, 2025, is Apple’s latest mainstream flagship series. The base model features Apple’s A19 chip and a 120 Hz LTPO OLED display, bringing high‑end performance and smoother visuals to the standard iPhone tier rather than only the Pro models. ^[11]

While IDC’s report focuses on shipments rather than specific features, the sales data tells its own story:

IDC estimates Apple will ship over 247 million iPhones in 2025, the vast majority of them from the new iPhone 17 family. ^[12]
MacRumors and other Apple‑focused outlets report that total iPhone shipments are on track to grow 6.1% this year, with the iPhone 17 responsible for most of that increase, especially in China and other large markets. ^[13]

In short: the iPhone 17 is not just another annual refresh — it is the device pulling the global smartphone market back into growth after several years of stagnation.

Apple Stock Hits Record Highs on iPhone 17 Momentum

Wall Street has taken notice.

Investopedia reports that Apple shares hit a new all-time high of nearly $289 per share on Wednesday, briefly pushing the company closer to a $4 trillion market valuation, before easing slightly later in the session. ^[14]

Additional coverage notes:

Apple stock is up roughly 14% year‑to‑date in 2025, slightly trailing the S&P 500 but re‑accelerating after a sluggish start to the year. ^[15]
Earlier in 2025, Apple had underperformed other “Magnificent Seven” tech names amid concerns it was falling behind in artificial intelligence. IDC’s new forecast and iPhone 17 demand have helped reverse that narrative. ^[16]
Separate reporting from MacDailyNews shows Apple recently set fresh intraday and closing record highs around the mid‑$280s, confirming that investor sentiment has pivoted decisively back in Apple’s favor ahead of year‑end. ^[17]

For investors, the message is clear: the hardware story still matters. Even in an AI‑obsessed market, a blockbuster iPhone cycle can move both the stock and the entire smartphone industry.

But 2026 Looks Much Tougher for Smartphones

For all the good news in 2025, IDC is sounding a warning about 2026.

According to Reuters and other outlets summarizing the same IDC report:

Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 0.9% in 2026, even after this year’s rebound. ^[18]
The primary culprit is a global memory chip shortage, which is pushing component prices higher and forcing manufacturers either to raise device prices or shift towards more premium models. ^[19]
IDC expects the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones to climb to about $465 in 2026, driving the total market value to a record ~$578.9 billion, even as fewer units are sold. ^[20]

On top of that, Apple itself faces a more complicated product cycle:

IDC and follow‑up coverage indicate Apple plans to skip a traditional “base” iPhone in 2026, delaying the next entry‑level model until early 2027. ^[21]
That change is expected to reduce iOS device shipments by roughly 4% next year, adding to the pressure on global unit numbers. ^[22]

In other words, 2025 is shaping up to be a peak year for units, with 2026 looking more like a hangover — albeit one cushioned by higher price tags.

How Apple Fits Into a Higher-Price Smartphone World

Despite the predicted unit decline in 2026, IDC believes the smartphone market will still reach record revenue, thanks to rising ASPs and a tilt toward premium models. ^[23]

Apple is uniquely positioned in this environment:

Its brand already skews heavily toward the premium end of the market, where buyers are more willing to absorb price hikes or pay extra for new features.
The iPhone 17 family — alongside related models like the iPhone Air — anchors a broad lineup that spans luxury flagships down to more affordable devices like the iPhone 16e, giving Apple flexibility if demand weakens at the low end. ^[24]
If competitors in the Android ecosystem are forced to raise prices more aggressively on mid‑range devices, Apple could actually look more attractive relative to rivals. ^[25]

However, Apple is not immune: fewer total iPhones sold in 2026 — even at higher prices — could slow its revenue growth and reignite investor questions about what comes after the iPhone as the company’s main growth engine.

What This Means for Consumers

For smartphone buyers, today’s data suggests several likely trends for 2026:

Higher prices, especially outside the ultra‑premium tier
- Memory costs are rising and vendors are expected to either push buyers toward higher‑margin models or quietly increase prices on mid‑range handsets. ^[26]
Longer upgrade cycles
- With phones getting more expensive, many consumers may continue to hold onto devices for four or five years, reinforcing the slower shipment environment IDC describes. ^[27]
Potentially better deals on older models
- As Apple leans into the iPhone 17 and future flagships, retailers may discount previous‑generation models (like the iPhone 16 family) to keep volumes flowing, especially if 2026 demand softens.
Regional differences
- Markets like China, where the iPhone 17 is already driving a sharp rebound for Apple, might see fewer discounts but continued strong promotion from carriers eager to capture premium customers. ^[28]

What This Means for Investors (Not Financial Advice)

For investors watching Apple and the wider smartphone space, a few points stand out from today’s news:

Apple is powering nearly all of the smartphone industry’s 2025 growth. IDC and multiple news outlets agree that without iPhone 17, global unit shipments would look far weaker. ^[29]
2025 could be a cyclical high point. With IDC forecasting a 0.9% decline in 2026 shipments, the market may start to treat this iPhone cycle as “peak volume” for a while. ^[30]
Apple’s stock is already pricing in a lot of good news. Record highs near $289 per share and talk of a possible $4 trillion valuation mean expectations are high heading into 2026. ^[31]
Execution on AI and new product categories still matters. Earlier concerns that Apple was lagging in AI were a drag on the stock; strong iPhone 17 demand has bought Apple more time, but not a free pass. ^[32]

This article is for informational and news purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice.

Key Numbers at a Glance

2025 global smartphone shipments: ~1.25 billion units, +1.5% year‑over‑year ^[33]
Apple 2025 iPhone shipments:>247 million units, about +6.1% year‑over‑year, an all‑time record ^[34]
Apple 2025 iPhone revenue:>$261 billion, +7.2% vs. 2024 ^[35]
Apple share in China (Oct–Nov 2025):20%+ market share, turning a projected 1% decline into 3% growth for the year ^[36]
2026 global smartphone unit outlook:–0.9% (decline), with ASPs rising to about $465 and total market value hitting roughly $578.9 billion ^[37]
Apple stock:Near $289 all‑time high, roughly +14% year‑to‑date in 2025 ^[38]

As of December 4, 2025, the takeaway is straightforward: the iPhone 17 is carrying both Apple and much of the global smartphone market, but 2026 will test whether record prices can keep profits growing even as unit sales wobble. For now, Apple is enjoying one of its strongest iPhone cycles ever — and the rest of the industry is trying to keep up.

The T-Mobile iPhone?! #Shorts #TMobile

Watch this video on YouTube.

References