Published: November 27, 2025
Apple is on track to dethrone Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone maker in 2025, ending a 14‑year run in which the Korean giant has dominated global shipments.
According to fresh projections from market research firm Counterpoint Research, Apple is expected to ship around 243 million iPhones in 2025, just ahead of Samsung’s roughly 235 million units, giving Apple a 19.4% share of global smartphone shipments versus 18.7% for Samsung. [1]
It would be Apple’s first time back at the top since 2011 – a symbolic milestone that underscores how the iPhone 17 series, shifting upgrade patterns, and a booming second‑hand iPhone ecosystem are reshaping the smartphone landscape. [2]
Inside the New 2025 Smartphone Forecast
Counterpoint’s latest Global Smartphone Forecast for 2025 and subsequent media coverage sketch a picture of a market finally emerging from its post‑pandemic hangover:
- Global smartphone shipments are forecast to grow about 3.3% year over year in 2025.
- Apple’s iPhone shipments are projected to jump roughly 10%, outpacing Samsung’s expected 4.6% increase. [3]
For now, Samsung still wears the quarterly crown. Counterpoint’s Q3 2025 data shows Samsung leading with about 19% market share, helped by strong Galaxy S25 and foldable sales, while the overall market grew 4% year-on-year. [4]
But on a full‑year basis, the momentum is clearly shifting toward Cupertino. Multiple outlets, citing the Counterpoint forecast, now agree that 2025 is poised to be the year Apple finally edges ahead in shipment volume. [5]
iPhone 17: The Engine Behind Apple’s Surge
At the center of Apple’s projected leap is the iPhone 17 family, launched in September 2025.
Counterpoint’s data, echoed in reports from The Verge, TipRanks and others, highlights several key trends:
- First four weeks outperformance: Sales of the iPhone 17 lineup in its first month were about 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series (excluding the budget 16e) in major markets like the US. [6]
- China rebound: In China, iPhone 17 sales during the launch window were estimated to be around 18% higher than those of its predecessor, contributing to a record October for Apple in the country. [7]
- Holiday tailwind: Analysts expect the series to remain a top seller through the year‑end holiday period, underpinning that projected 10% annual shipment growth. [8]
Singles’ Day: Apple Carries the Entire Market
Today’s new data out of China puts an exclamation mark on Apple’s momentum.
During the month‑long Singles’ Day 2025 shopping festival, research firm Counterpoint found that:
- Apple captured 26% of all smartphones sold during the event.
- Overall smartphone sales during the festival rose 3% year on year – but would have fallen 5% without Apple. [9]
In other words, Apple alone turned a market decline into growth in the world’s most important smartphone battleground. Huawei and other rivals saw weaker performance, with Huawei’s share slipping from 17% to 13% amid a late flagship launch. [10]
The Quiet Power of the Second‑Hand iPhone
One of the most interesting pieces of the 2025 story isn’t about new phones at all – it’s about used iPhones.
Counterpoint’s forecast and coverage in outlets like news.com.au and TipRanks highlight that:
- Around 358 million second‑hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid‑2025.
- Many of those buyers eventually upgrade into the new iPhone lineup, feeding Apple’s future shipment growth. [11]
This enormous resale ecosystem does two things for Apple:
- Keeps people in the ecosystem – even buyers of older devices are pulled into iCloud, App Store, and services.
- Creates a built‑in upgrade funnel – when second‑hand owners are ready to move up, the iPhone 17 (and future 17e/18 series) are obvious candidates.
Combine that with a replacement cycle hitting its peak – many consumers are finally upgrading phones bought during the COVID‑era boom – and Apple’s growth story looks less like a short‑term spike and more like a multi‑year trend. [12]
Why Samsung Is Still Far From “Losing”
The headline “Apple overtakes Samsung” is big, but it doesn’t mean Samsung is suddenly in trouble. The Korean company remains a powerhouse with deep strengths in hardware, display tech, and emerging form factors like foldables.
Strong Premium Lineup and Rising Revenue
Recent Counterpoint data and Samsung‑focused analysis show:
- Samsung led Q3 2025 shipments with roughly 60.6 million units and around 19% global share.
- Its smartphone revenue grew about 9% year‑on‑year in Q3, thanks to a richer mix of Galaxy S25 flagships and foldables like the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Flip 7, which also helped lift average selling prices by around 3%. [13]
So even if Apple edges ahead in units for 2025, both companies are benefiting from a shift toward more expensive, premium devices.
Galaxy S25: Excellent, but Incremental
Reviews of the Galaxy S25 and S25 Plus broadly praise their build quality, cameras, battery life and the promise of seven years of OS updates – but many critics describe the phones as evolutionary rather than revolutionary. [14]
In a year when Apple’s iPhone 17 line is perceived as a bigger step forward – and is supported by a huge upgrade wave – that difference in “wow factor” may be just enough to shift shipments in Apple’s favor, even while Samsung still sells a vast number of devices.
Samsung’s Counter‑Strategy: A Series & Foldables
Apple’s strength lies mostly in the premium segment, but Samsung retains a major advantage lower down the price ladder. Counterpoint’s forecast notes that Samsung is:
- Leaning hard on its Galaxy A series in emerging markets, where value‑for‑money is crucial.
- Using premium S25 models and foldables to defend market share in mature markets. [15]
That combination keeps Samsung extremely competitive even if Apple briefly takes the global shipment crown.
Four Big Forces Driving Apple’s 2025 Breakthrough
Taken together, today’s data suggests four main reasons 2025 is the turning point in Apple vs. Samsung shipments:
- A massive upgrade cycle
Phones bought during the 2020–2021 pandemic boom are now hitting the end of their comfortable life. Counterpoint and multiple analysts flag this replacement wave as a key reason why Apple can grow shipments 10% in a market that’s barely growing a few percent overall. [16] - A hit flagship in iPhone 17
The iPhone 17 line – particularly the standard model – is outperforming the previous generation in the US, Europe and China, with double‑digit early‑sales growth and sustained demand into Q4. [17] - Premium market dominance
Counterpoint’s premium‑segment analysis for H1 2025 shows premium smartphone sales hitting record highs, with Apple far ahead and Samsung growing too thanks to the S25 line. But Apple still captures the lion’s share of profits, and a shipment lead would deepen that advantage. [18] - Favorable macro and policy winds
Analysts point to easing US‑China trade tensions, a weaker dollar, and relatively stable supply chains as tailwinds helping Apple hold prices, manage tariffs, and push deeper into price‑sensitive regions without sacrificing demand. [19]
What Comes Next: iPhone 17e, Foldables and the 2029 Horizon
The forecast isn’t just about 2025. Counterpoint’s projections and follow‑up reporting suggest that Apple could maintain its shipment lead through at least 2029, assuming current trends continue. [20]
Several upcoming moves could reinforce that lead:
- iPhone 17e in 2026: Apple is expected to launch a more affordable “17e” model in the spring, targeting consumers who want the iPhone 17 experience at a lower price point. [21]
- Apple’s first foldable iPhone: Multiple reports, including those cited by The Verge and HardwareZone, point to a foldable iPhone in development, likely arriving later this decade to compete more directly with Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold and Flip lines. [22]
- A reshaped iPhone lineup by 2027: Industry watchers expect a “major shake‑up” of Apple’s lineup with new form factors and price tiers, giving the company more flexibility to reach both premium and mid‑range buyers. [23]
If Apple executes on that roadmap while maintaining strong demand in China, the US and Europe, its time on top could last far longer than a single year.
What This Means for Everyday Smartphone Buyers
For consumers, Apple nudging ahead of Samsung in shipments doesn’t immediately change how your phone works – but it does have ripple effects:
- More intense premium competition:
Apple and Samsung will keep pushing camera, battery, and on‑device AI features to differentiate their flagships. Buyers can expect faster innovation at the high end, especially around generative AI features and computational photography. - Healthier second‑hand and trade‑in markets:
With hundreds of millions of used iPhones circulating and strong demand for the iPhone 17 line, trade‑in values for recent iPhones are likely to remain attractive, lowering effective upgrade costs. [24] - Better mid‑range options from everyone:
Samsung’s A series, Chinese brands’ upper‑midrange phones, and Apple’s anticipated 17e model will all compete to pull people into their ecosystems. That competition usually translates into more features for the same money over time. [25]
Key Numbers at a Glance (2025 Forecast)
- Apple 2025 smartphone shipments: ~243 million
- Samsung 2025 smartphone shipments: ~235 million
- Global market share (shipments): Apple 19.4%, Samsung 18.7%
- Growth vs. 2024: Apple +10%, Samsung +4.6%, global market +3.3%
- Singles’ Day 2025 in China: Apple 26% of smartphone sales; overall market +3% YoY, –5% without Apple [26]
If those projections hold, 2025 will go down as the year Apple didn’t just dominate profits and mindshare – it finally won the unit race too.
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 3. www.news.com.au, 4. counterpointresearch.com, 5. 9to5mac.com, 6. www.theverge.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.hardwarezone.com.sg, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.news.com.au, 12. www.news.com.au, 13. counterpointresearch.com, 14. www.theverge.com, 15. www.news.com.au, 16. www.news.com.au, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. counterpointresearch.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.news.com.au, 21. www.theverge.com, 22. www.theverge.com, 23. www.hardwarezone.com.sg, 24. www.news.com.au, 25. www.news.com.au, 26. www.tipranks.com
