- Surging iPhone 17 Sales: Counterpoint Research reports that the new iPhone 17 series is outselling last year’s lineup by about 14% in the first 10 days of launch in China and the U.S. [1]. Analysts say the base iPhone 17 — with a faster chip, sharper display, more storage and an upgraded camera at the same price — has proven especially popular (especially in China) [2] [3].
- Record-Breaking Stock Rally: On Oct. 20, Apple shares jumped roughly 4%, closing at a new all-time high (around $262–$264) [4] [5]. That gain pushed Apple’s market cap close to $3.9–4.0 trillion [6], making it the world’s second-largest company. The surge helped lift the major indexes – the S&P 500 and Dow each climbed about 1% – as Apple was the single biggest contributor to Monday’s market rally [7] [8].
- Bullish Analyst Calls: Wall Street firms have turned bullish. Loop Capital upgraded Apple to “Buy” and raised its price target to $315 (about 25% above Friday’s close), citing “surging demand” and a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle ahead [9]. Loop analysts even noted that total iPhone shipments in Q3 2025 “blew past all expectations” at 56.5 million units [10]. Evercore ISI added Apple to its Outperform list, saying the company is “well positioned to report upside” in the current quarter based on strong pre-order and survey data [11] [12]. Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring similarly argued that “low expectations” for the iPhone cycle could translate to stock upside if sales come in higher than feared [13].
- Mixed Signals on iPhone Air: Not every new model is flying off shelves equally. The entry-level iPhone Air, Apple’s first eSIM-only model, sold out in China minutes after pre-orders opened [14]. But Japan’s Mizuho Securities warns that global demand for the iPhone Air is softer; it expects Apple will cut Air production by 1 million units and divert capacity to the strong-selling Pro/standard models [15]. (Counterpoint and AppleInsider note that the Air is still selling a bit better than last year’s “Plus” model, even if it remains a niche due to its high price [16] [17].)
- Market Context: Traders also pointed out that Apple’s bounce comes amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions and robust earnings elsewhere. Bloomberg observes that Apple’s stock was the top Dow performer Monday and “hit its first record of 2025” as analysts flagged the improving iPhone outlook [18] [19]. As one strategist put it, Apple has “rolled out the latest version of their iPhone and it’s doing much better than anticipated… the demand trends for the company’s iPhones are now on the front foot” [20].
Exploding iPhone Demand
Early data confirm that iPhone 17 demand is unusually strong. In China, the iPhone 17 base model is “very compelling to consumers, offering great value for money,” Counterpoint Research’s Mengmeng Zhang tells analysts [21]. She notes that Chinese buyers nearly doubled unit sales of the new $799 iPhone 17 (versus last year’s 16) during the equivalent 10-day launch window [22]. In the U.S., AppleInsider reports that carriers have increased subsidies by about $100, effectively making the premium iPhone 17 Pro Max a more affordable upgrade. That helped drive the Pro Max to “lead early demand” stateside [23].
Altogether, Counterpoint finds the iPhone 17 lineup “far outpaces” last year’s models. Its report shows combined sales in the U.S. and China were about 14% higher than for the iPhone 16 series in the same initial period [24]. As one analyst comments, Apple “added more value to its base models while keeping high-end buyers interested,” helping fuel the cycle [25]. In short, both price-conscious and premium buyers are upgrading — a sweet spot Apple seems to have struck this year.
Record Stock High & Broader Market Lift
Investors rewarded the strong iPhone buzz almost immediately. On Oct. 20, Apple’s stock shot to a fresh record. Bloomberg notes the shares rose 3.9% to $262.24, “taking out an all-time high” that had stood since December 2024 [26]. Monday’s gains meant Apple regained all the ground lost earlier in the year – the stock had fallen as much as 31% in April but was up over 50% from those lows by late September [27]. The Times of India (Reuters) reports Apple’s stock closed up about 4.2% at $262.90, lifting its market value to roughly $3.9 trillion [28]. At that level, Apple briefly became the world’s second most valuable company (ahead of Microsoft) and is “nearly $4 trillion” in market cap.
The rally in Apple also boosted the wider market. AP News notes Apple was the “strongest force” lifting the S&P 500 on Monday [29]; the S&P rose 1.1% and the Dow gained 1.1% as a result [30]. Bloomberg confirms the S&P extended its multi-day rally, helped by easing U.S.-China trade fears and better earnings, “and a rally in Apple” hitting first record highs of the year [31]. In short, Wall Street traders viewed Apple’s success as a positive omen and piled into tech stocks alongside it.
What the Experts Say
Several analysts have explained why Apple’s latest iPhone cycle could sustain the rally. Loop Capital’s team now expects Apple to enjoy multiple years of growth – analyst Ananda Baruah says Apple is “at the front end of Apple’s long-anticipated adoption cycle” for iPhones, meaning shipments should expand through 2027 [32]. The firm also doubled down on its forecasts: Loop hiked its price target to $315 (from $226) and noted Apple may be heading into “a three-year stretch of record-setting iPhone sales” [33]. In Loop’s view, the iPhone 17 demand is “far better than anticipated,” with total Q3 iPhone shipments well above consensus [34].
Evercore ISI reached a similar conclusion. In a note highlighted by financial media, Evercore said Apple is “well positioned to report upside to current Sep-qtr consensus expectations” and could even guide higher for the December quarter [35]. Evercore’s “positive bias” is driven by stronger-than-usual pre-order data: base iPhone 17 lead times are longer than last year’s, and consumer surveys show an unusually large number of people planning to upgrade this year [36]. And Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring has pointed out that with many investors already doubting Apple’s growth, the company simply has to meet (or slightly beat) expectations to push the stock higher. As he noted, “low expectations heading into this year’s iPhone upgrade cycle could boost the stock in the near term,” since any sales surprises would come on top of those modest forecasts [37].
Even other market watchers have picked up on the trend. Reuters reports that strategic investor Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth said “demand trends for the company’s iPhones are now on the front foot” – in other words, the early sales have been stronger than expected and give Apple momentum [38]. In summary, nearly every Wall Street and independent analyst we saw agrees that early data on iPhone 17 demand are a positive for Apple’s earnings outlook.
A Closer Look at the iPhone Lineup
It’s worth noting that not every new iPhone model is an outright hit. The iPhone Air, Apple’s cheapest new model with only eSIM support, has had a mixed reception. In China the Air “sold out” almost immediately once regulatory approval was granted [39], but reports suggest demand elsewhere is weaker. Japan’s Mizuho Securities (via industry outlet The Elec) says Air sales have been “underwhelming” in the West. Mizuho forecasts Apple will trim Air production by about 1 million units and instead allocate more capacity to the highly successful 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max [40].
By contrast, the main iPhone 17 models are holding strong. Both Counterpoint and AppleInsider highlight that the standard iPhone 17 is a major success — particularly in China — and the Pro models are outperforming their last-generation counterparts [41] [42]. AppleInsider notes that Apple has increased its overall iPhone 17 production forecast to 94 million units (up from 88 million) thanks to these robust trends [43]. In short, even as one model (the Air) lags, the core lineup has enough momentum to carry the quarter.
Apple also faces strong competition in its key markets, something analysts keep an eye on. In China, domestic brands like Huawei and Xiaomi have been aggressive – but AppleInsider observes that the iPhone 17’s new color options and tech improvements have helped draw customers back. In the U.S., Samsung still dominates the Android space, but carriers pushing the iPhone 17 Pro Max may allow Apple to reclaim some premium-market share. The key point is that Apple’s big gains in China and the U.S. (each up double-digits year-over-year) set a solid base heading into the holiday season [44]. Historically, gains in those two markets often predict a strong final quarter.
Outlook
For now, sentiment around Apple has flipped strongly positive. The stock’s rally shows that investors have regained confidence in the iPhone business, at least in the short term. Of course, Apple still has challenges – it’s late to the AI party and faces potential risks from tariffs and market saturation – but analysts believe strong product launches can offset those concerns. With the next earnings report due Oct. 30, many will watch whether Apple can translate this early iPhone demand into better-than-expected revenue. As Art Hogan of B. Riley put it, Apple has “rolled out the latest version of their iPhone and it’s doing much better than anticipated,” a trend that could keep its shares on the uptrack [45].
Sources: Contemporary market and research reports. Key data and quotes are from Bloomberg [46] [47], Investopedia [48] [49], AppleInsider [50] [51], AP News [52], MacRumors [53] [54], MacDailyNews [55] [56], and other reputable outlets [57] [58]. These have been cited in-text above.
References
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